纽约置业，先把复杂的事讲清楚。

一、STAR 是什么？纽约房主都能领吗？

大家好，我是 Tony。

STAR 的全称是 School Tax Relief，也就是学校税减免。这是纽约州的一项房产税福利，主要针对符合条件、将房屋作为主要住所的业主。

先说一个重要区别：STAR 主要与学校税有关，并不是所有房产税都能减免。在纽约市，相关减免的适用方式与州内其他地区有所不同。

纽约市财政局公布的参考金额是：

• Basic STAR：每年大约节省 $300。
• Enhanced STAR：符合条件的老年业主，每年大约节省 $650。

这两个数字是参考值，不是每个家庭都能拿到的固定金额。实际福利取决于资格、适用规则及房屋所在地区。

STAR 有两种领取方式

很多人不知道，STAR 不仅有 Basic 和 Enhanced 两个福利等级，还有两种不同的领取方式。

第一种：STAR exemption（房产税单减免）

符合条件、此前已经享有旧制 STAR exemption 的业主，可以在符合保留条件的情况下继续领取。减免直接体现在适用的房产税单上。

第二种：STAR credit（州政府抵免）

新业主通常需要向纽约州税局注册。符合条件后，州政府会通过支票或直接存款发放福利，用于支付学校税。

这里要特别提醒：这两种方式不是让你同时领取两份福利。你应先确认自己目前属于哪一种，再判断下一步需要做什么。

如果你最近几年才买房，或者从来没有确认过自己的 STAR 状态，可以先登录纽约州税局的 Homeowner Benefit Portal 查询。

官方入口：

https://www.tax.ny.gov/pit/property/star/

二、Basic STAR 和 Enhanced STAR，有什么区别？

Basic STAR 没有年龄要求；Enhanced STAR 则是为符合年龄、收入及其他资格条件的老年业主提供的较高福利。

表格中的金额和收入门槛对应不同的计算口径，不能直接相互比较。尤其是房屋全值的计算基础，并不代表房屋市场价格直接减少了相同金额，也不等于实际省下的税款。

还有一个值得注意的变化：从 2026 年起，纽约州简化了 Enhanced STAR 的升级流程。

对于符合条件的 STAR credit 领取者，州税局会自动审核并发放 Enhanced STAR，不需要专门提交一次升级申请。旧制 exemption 领取者也有相应的自动升级安排。

所以，家里有人满 65 岁，并不意味着一定要重新申请；但也不能只看年龄就认定自己一定符合条件。收入、主要住所及其他资格条件仍然重要。

收入究竟怎么算？

Enhanced STAR 的收入门槛需要特别留意福利年度。

2026 年福利对应的收入上限是 $110,750，主要依据 2024 年的报税资料核定。2027 年福利年度的收入上限则为 $113,550。

从 2026 年开始，州税局还调整了收入计算涉及的业主范围，主要关注居住在该房产的业主及同住配偶的收入。

如果家庭存在非居住业主、信托持有、夫妻分居或其他特殊情况，建议直接核实官方资格规则，不要仅凭家庭总收入自行判断。

官方资料：

https://www.tax.ny.gov/pit/property/star/eligibility.htm

三、除了 STAR，纽约市还有哪些房产税减免？

如果房屋位于纽约市，除了 STAR，还可以了解以下项目。

1. SCHE：老年业主减免

SCHE 的全称是 Senior Citizen Homeowners' Exemption。

一般而言，符合条件的业主需要年满 65 岁，家庭相关收入不超过 $58,399，并满足所有权和主要住所等要求。

这项减免按照收入分档，最多可减少房屋评估值的 50%。

这里一定要说清楚：减少 50% 的是用于计算房产税的评估值，不是房屋市场价格，也不是直接把税单金额减半。

SCHE 通常需要每两年续期一次。

2. DHE：残疾业主减免

DHE 是 Disabled Homeowners' Exemption，面向符合条件的残疾业主。

纽约市公布的收入上限为 $58,399，符合条件者的房屋评估值最高可减少 50%。具体资格和申请文件需要以财政局规定为准。

SCHE 与 DHE 不能同时领取。如果同时符合两项，纽约市规定按 SCHE 处理。

3. 退伍军人减免

纽约市还为符合条件的退伍军人、部分配偶或遗属等提供房产税减免。

具体福利取决于服役情况、房产及个人资格。不要仅凭自己或家人的服役身份，就直接认定一定能获得某个金额。

申请条件、适用税种和需要提交的资料，建议向纽约市财政局核实。

以上三项市级减免，通常需要在每年 3 月 15 日前申请或续期，才能赶上下一税年；如截止日遇到周末或节假日，应以官方公布的实际日期为准。

官方入口：

https://www.nyc.gov/site/finance/property/residential-properties-exemptions.page

四、现在是 2026 年 10 月，还能做什么？

这部分对现在准备检查自家房产税的朋友最有用。

第一，STAR credit：现在仍然可以注册。

纽约州税局明确说明，STAR credit 没有常规申请截止日。

如果符合条件但从未注册，可以先通过 Homeowner Benefit Portal 查询和办理。已经注册的人，则可以检查自己的福利状态及历年发放记录。

需要注意的是，没有常规截止日不等于过去所有年份都能无限期补领。州税局对以前年度的 STAR credit 设有追溯申领期限。

第二，SCHE、DHE 等市级减免：准备下一轮申请。

按照纽约市通常的申请安排，3 月 15 日是申请或续期的重要日期。对于尚未申请的家庭，可以提前准备资料，并核实下一申请周期的具体要求。

如果已经在领取 SCHE，也要留意财政局的续期通知，不要因为已经领过一次，就认为以后完全不用处理。

第三，Enhanced STAR：核实是否已经按符合条件的等级发放。

2026 年开始，州税局对符合条件的自动升级作出了调整。如果家里已经有符合年龄要求的居住业主，但领取金额与预期不同，可以登录门户核对资格和发放状态。

不要仅凭税单上没有某个名称，就认定自己一定漏领；不同领取方式，显示位置也可能不同。

五、三步检查自家的 STAR

如果你想知道自己家有没有漏掉福利，可以从这三步开始。

第一步：查看房产税单。

确认有没有 STAR exemption 的相关记录。如果税单上显示旧制减免，先不要重复注册另一种福利。

第二步：登录州税局门户。

在纽约州税局的 Individual Online Services 账户中，进入 Homeowner Benefit Portal，查询目前的福利类型、登记状态及发放记录。

https://www.tax.ny.gov/

第三步：核对家庭资格。

家里有 65 岁以上的业主，可以检查 Enhanced STAR 是否已经按适用规则发放；符合老人、残疾人或退伍军人减免条件的，也可以进一步查看纽约市财政局的相关项目。

如果发现记录不清楚，直接向主管部门核实，通常比单凭一张税单猜测更可靠。

Tony 的最后一点观察

我觉得，房产税值得关注的，不只是每年交了多少钱，还有没有把自己符合条件的福利核对清楚。

STAR、老人减免、残疾人减免，各有自己的规则。有人可能只符合其中一项，也有人需要分别核实不同项目的资格。

这些规则不复杂到完全看不懂，但也不能只看一个收入数字或年龄，就认定自己一定符合条件。

如果你准备检查自家的房产税，不妨先把税单和相关记录找出来，再对照官方资料逐项核实。

本文根据截至 2026 年 10 月可查的公开资料整理，仅用于一般信息参考，不构成税务或法律建议。具体资格、福利金额及申请期限，以纽约州税局、纽约市财政局及相关主管部门的最新规定为准。

Tony Huang｜纽约房产经纪人
917-391-6633

1. What is STAR? Can every New York homeowner get it?

Hi everyone, I'm Tony.

STAR stands for School Tax Relief. It's a New York State property tax benefit, aimed mainly at eligible owners who use the home as their primary residence.

One important distinction first: STAR relates mainly to school tax — it doesn't reduce every part of your property tax. In New York City, how the relief applies also differs somewhat from the rest of the state.

The reference figures published by the NYC Department of Finance are:

• Basic STAR: saves roughly $300 a year.
• Enhanced STAR: for eligible senior owners, saves roughly $650 a year.

These are reference figures, not a fixed amount every household receives. The actual benefit depends on eligibility, the applicable rules, and where the home is located.

Two ways to receive STAR

Many people don't realize that STAR comes not only in two benefit levels, Basic and Enhanced, but also in two different delivery methods.

The first: the STAR exemption (a reduction on the property tax bill)

Owners who already had the legacy STAR exemption and continue to meet the retention conditions can keep receiving it. The reduction appears directly on the applicable property tax bill.

The second: the STAR credit (a state credit)

New owners generally need to register with the New York State Tax Department. Once approved, the state issues the benefit by check or direct deposit, to be used toward school tax.

One point deserves emphasis: these two methods are not two benefits you can collect at the same time. First confirm which one you currently have, then decide what you need to do next.

If you bought your home in the last few years, or have never confirmed your STAR status, you can start by checking the Tax Department's Homeowner Benefit Portal.

Official portal:

https://www.tax.ny.gov/pit/property/star/

2. Basic STAR vs. Enhanced STAR — what's the difference?

Basic STAR has no age requirement. Enhanced STAR is the higher benefit for senior owners who meet the age, income, and other eligibility conditions.

The amounts and income limits in the table follow different calculation bases and can't be compared directly. In particular, the "first dollars of full value" used as the calculation base does not mean the home's market price drops by the same amount, nor does it equal the tax actually saved.

There's also a change worth noting: starting in 2026, New York State simplified the upgrade process for Enhanced STAR.

For eligible STAR credit recipients, the Tax Department automatically reviews eligibility and issues Enhanced STAR — no separate upgrade application is needed. Legacy exemption recipients have a corresponding automatic-upgrade arrangement as well.

So if someone in the household turns 65, it doesn't necessarily mean you must apply all over again; but you also can't conclude you qualify just from age alone. Income, primary residence, and the other conditions still matter.

How exactly is income counted?

For the Enhanced STAR income limit, pay close attention to the benefit year.

The income limit for 2026 benefits is $110,750, determined mainly from 2024 tax filings. For the 2027 benefit year, the limit is $113,550.

Starting in 2026, the state also adjusted whose income counts toward the calculation, focusing mainly on the owners who live in the property and a spouse living with them.

If your household involves non-resident owners, trust ownership, spouses living apart, or other special circumstances, verify the official eligibility rules directly rather than judging by total household income on your own.

Official source:

https://www.tax.ny.gov/pit/property/star/eligibility.htm

3. Beyond STAR, what other property tax exemptions does New York City offer?

If the home is located in New York City, besides STAR you can also look into the following programs.

1. SCHE: the senior citizen homeowners' exemption

SCHE stands for Senior Citizen Homeowners' Exemption.

In general, eligible owners must be at least 65 years old, have combined household income relevant to the exemption of no more than $58,399, and meet ownership and primary-residence requirements.

The exemption is tiered by income and can reduce the home's assessed value by up to 50%.

Be clear about this: the 50% applies to the assessed value used to calculate the tax — it is not the home's market price, and it does not directly cut your tax bill in half.

SCHE generally needs to be renewed every two years.

2. DHE: the disabled homeowners' exemption

DHE is the Disabled Homeowners' Exemption, for owners with qualifying disabilities.

New York City's published income limit is $58,399, and eligible owners can have their assessed value reduced by up to 50%. Specific eligibility and required documents follow the Department of Finance rules.

SCHE and DHE cannot be received at the same time. If you qualify for both, New York City applies SCHE.

3. The veterans exemption

New York City also offers property tax relief to eligible veterans and to certain spouses or surviving spouses.

The specific benefit depends on service history, the property, and personal eligibility. Don't assume you can get a certain amount just from your own or a family member's service.

For application conditions, the taxes it applies to, and the documents required, check with the NYC Department of Finance.

The three city exemptions above generally must be applied for or renewed by March 15 each year to take effect for the next tax year; if the deadline falls on a weekend or holiday, the officially published date governs.

Official portal:

https://www.nyc.gov/site/finance/property/residential-properties-exemptions.page

4. It's October 2026 — what can you still do now?

This part is the most useful for anyone about to review their own property tax.

First, the STAR credit: you can still register now.

The Tax Department states clearly that the STAR credit has no regular application deadline.

If you qualify but have never registered, you can check and enroll through the Homeowner Benefit Portal. If you're already registered, you can review your benefit status and payment records from prior years.

Note that "no regular deadline" doesn't mean credits for all past years can be claimed indefinitely — the Tax Department sets a time limit for claiming STAR credits for prior years.

Second, city exemptions such as SCHE and DHE: prepare for the next application round.

Under New York City's usual schedule, March 15 is the key date for applying or renewing. Households that haven't applied yet can prepare their documents in advance and verify the specific requirements for the next application cycle.

If you're already receiving SCHE, watch for the Department of Finance renewal notices — don't assume that because you received it once, there's nothing to handle ever again.

Third, Enhanced STAR: verify it's being issued at the level you qualify for.

Starting in 2026, the Tax Department adjusted its automatic upgrades for those who qualify. If your household has a resident owner who meets the age requirement but the amount you receive differs from what you expected, log into the portal to check your eligibility and payment status.

Don't conclude you've missed out just because a certain name doesn't appear on your tax bill — the two delivery methods may show up in different places.

5. Three steps to check your own STAR

If you want to know whether your household has missed a benefit, start with these three steps.

Step one: look at your property tax bill.

Check whether there is any record of a STAR exemption. If the bill shows the legacy exemption, don't register for the other method as well.

Step two: log into the state Tax Department portal.

In your Individual Online Services account with the New York State Tax Department, open the Homeowner Benefit Portal to see your current benefit type, registration status, and payment records.

https://www.tax.ny.gov/

Step three: verify your household's eligibility.

If an owner in the household is 65 or older, check whether Enhanced STAR is being issued under the applicable rules; if you may qualify for a senior, disability, or veterans exemption, you can also look into the NYC Department of Finance programs.

If the records are unclear, verifying directly with the responsible agency is usually more reliable than guessing from a single tax bill.

Tony's final observation

I think property tax deserves attention not only for how much you pay each year, but also for whether you've verified every benefit you're eligible for.

STAR, the senior exemption, and the disability exemption each have their own rules. Some people may qualify for only one of them; others need to verify their eligibility for different programs separately.

These rules aren't too complicated to work through, but you can't conclude you qualify from a single income figure or an age alone.

If you're about to review your own property tax, pull out your tax bill and related records first, then check them item by item against the official sources.

This article is compiled from publicly available information as of October 2026, for general information only; it does not constitute tax or legal advice. Specific eligibility, benefit amounts, and application deadlines are governed by the latest rules of the New York State Tax Department, the NYC Department of Finance, and the relevant authorities.

Tony Huang | New York real estate agent
917-391-6633

一、这是什么和解？

案件名称是 Tuccori et al. v. At World Properties, LLC et al.，案件编号为 1:24-cv-00150，由美国伊利诺伊州北区联邦地区法院审理。

被告包括美国全国房地产经纪人协会（NAR）以及多家房地产经纪公司。

原告指控，被告涉及的相关规则和做法限制了房地产经纪服务市场的竞争，导致买家承担了不合理的佣金成本。被告否认存在违法行为，法院也尚未对这些指控作出最终实体裁决。

双方提出的和解总额为 $120,334,500，其中 NAR 承担 $52,250,000。

需要特别说明：这是一项拟议集体诉讼和解。按照和解官网截至本文核查时公布的信息，法院最终批准听证会安排在 2026 年 11 月 2 日上午 9:30 举行。和解是否最终获批，要以法院后续决定为准。

官方和解网站：

https://homebuyersettlement.com/en

二、什么人可能符合条件？

根据和解官网，基本条件是：

• 你在适用的集体期间内购买了住宅；
• 该住宅曾在美国的多重挂牌服务系统（MLS）挂牌；
• 与这笔交易有关的经纪公司获得过佣金；
• 你的交易符合相应被告及所在州的适用日期范围；
• 你没有因其他相关和解或排除条件而失去相应索赔资格。

纽约购房者尤其需要注意：官网明确表示，符合定义的房屋可以包括通过 REBNY Residential Listing Service（纽约房地产委员会住宅挂牌系统）挂牌的房屋。

对涉及 NAR 及部分大型经纪公司的相关索赔，纽约适用的购房期间为 2015 年 1 月 25 日至 2026 年 6 月 25 日。

但并不是所有被告都使用同一个起始日期。另一组被告适用不同的集体期间，纽约的相关交易通常从 2019 年 12 月 8 日开始计算。具体要按照官网 FAQ 第 6 条的被告分组表核实。

所以，如果你在 2015 年以后买过房，可以先去官网查看；但不要只凭年份就认定自己符合条件。

三、只卖过房的人，可以申请吗？

这部分很容易混淆。

这项和解针对的是符合条件的购房者，不是仅仅因为卖过房就符合资格的业主。

卖方涉及的是其他独立诉讼和和解。假如你既买过房，也卖过房，需要根据自己买入的交易核对本案条件；同时还要确认自己是否曾参与其他和解，导致某些相关索赔被排除。

如果你只是卖过房，没有符合本案定义的购房交易，就不能因为看到这笔 1.2 亿美元和解金而直接提交索赔。

四、怎么申请？需要准备什么？

官方申请入口只有一个：

https://homebuyersettlement.com/en

进入网站后，找到提交索赔（Submit a Claim）的页面，按照指引填写资料。

官网列出的购房证明文件包括：

• Closing statement（过户结算单）
• Settlement statement（交易结算单）
• HUD statement（HUD 结算文件）
• Settlement letter（结算函）
• 其他相关购房及过户交易文件

这些是官网列举的文件类型，具体需要提交哪些资料，以你填写索赔表时的要求为准。

如果找不到当年的文件，可以尝试联系当时的过户律师、贷款机构或经纪人，询问能否取得副本。

只提交清晰、可读的复印件或电子副本，不要寄原件。官网说明，提交的支持文件不会退还。

如果在线提交成功，官网说明会发送包含确认码的电子邮件。提交后要保留确认邮件、确认码以及自己提交的材料。

截止日期怎么把握？

在线索赔必须在 2026 年 10 月 27 日前提交。

如果邮寄，必须在该日期或之前取得符合要求的邮戳。官网特别提醒，信件投入邮箱或交到当地邮局的日期，不一定就是实际邮戳日期。

现在距离截止日很近，如果你符合条件且资料已经准备好，优先考虑通过官网在线提交，并保存确认记录。

索赔管理方的免费客服电话：1-877-417-7662。

五、每个人能拿多少钱？

这是大家最关心的问题，但目前没有可靠的固定金额可以告诉你。

$120,334,500 是拟议和解基金的总额，不是每位买家都能平均分到的钱。

按照官网公布的规则，基金需要先扣除法院批准的律师费、诉讼费用和管理费用等，再依据获批的分配方案，按比例向符合条件的索赔人分配。

每个人最终获得多少，取决于有效索赔的总量、购买房产的数量、相关交易中支付的佣金等因素。

原告律师表示将申请不超过和解基金三分之一的律师费，但最终费用须由法院批准，也可能低于申请金额。

另外，官网说明，款项预计会在和解获批并最终生效后，分多期、跨数年发放。现在还不能确定每个人的具体金额和付款日期。

所以，不要把 1.2 亿美元理解为一笔已经可以领取的固定退款，也不要相信有人保证你一定能拿到某个金额。

六、还有一个容易忽略的法律问题

如果你符合条件，但什么都不做，会发生什么？

根据官网 FAQ 第 18 条，如果你属于集体成员，却没有提交索赔，你将无法获得本次和解的付款。

与此同时，如果和解最终获批并生效，你仍可能受和解条款约束，相关索赔权利也可能被解除。

换句话说，不提交索赔，不等于自动退出集体诉讼。

本案选择退出和解的截止日期是 2026 年 9 月 17 日，已经过去。如果你有特殊法律顾虑，例如已经就相关佣金问题提起诉讼，建议向自己的律师咨询，不要只凭一篇文章决定如何处理。

Tony 的最后提醒

如果你在纽约或美国其他地区买过房，这件事值得核实一下。

但请记住三点：

第一，买过房不等于一定符合条件，要核对挂牌情况、交易日期及其他资格要求。

第二，和解总额不等于个人退款金额，具体分配仍取决于法院批准的方案和有效索赔情况。

第三，只通过官方和解网站了解规则、提交索赔。不要向陌生人支付所谓的申请费，也不要轻信保证退款金额的消息。

官方入口：https://homebuyersettlement.com/en

本文根据公开和解资料整理，仅供一般信息参考，不构成法律建议。资格、提交要求、截止日期及和解最终状态，以和解官网和法院文件为准。

Tony Huang｜纽约房产经纪人
917-391-6633

1. What is this settlement?

The case is Tuccori et al. v. At World Properties, LLC et al., Case No. 1:24-cv-00150, in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois.

The defendants include the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) and multiple real estate brokerage companies.

The plaintiffs allege that the defendants' related rules and practices restricted competition in the market for real estate brokerage services, causing buyers to bear unreasonable commission costs. The defendants deny any wrongdoing, and the court has not yet made a final ruling on the merits of these allegations.

The proposed settlement totals $120,334,500, of which NAR bears $52,250,000.

One point deserves emphasis: this is a proposed class action settlement. According to the information published on the settlement website as of the time this article was checked, the court's final approval hearing is scheduled for November 2, 2026, at 9:30 a.m. Whether the settlement is ultimately approved depends on the court's later decision.

Official settlement website:

https://homebuyersettlement.com/en

2. Who may qualify?

According to the settlement website, the basic conditions are:

• You purchased a home during the applicable class period;
• The home was listed on a Multiple Listing Service (MLS) in the United States;
• A brokerage involved in the transaction received a commission;
• Your transaction falls within the applicable date range for the relevant defendant and your state;
• You have not lost eligibility for the relevant claim through another related settlement or an exclusion condition.

New York buyers should note in particular: the website states expressly that qualifying homes can include those listed through the REBNY Residential Listing Service (the Real Estate Board of New York's residential listing service).

For claims involving NAR and certain large brokerages, New York's applicable purchase period runs from January 25, 2015 to June 25, 2026.

But not all defendants use the same start date. A second group of defendants has a different class period; for New York, the relevant transactions generally count from December 8, 2019. Check the defendant grouping table in Question 6 of the website's FAQ for the specifics.

So if you bought a home any time after 2015, you can start by checking the website — but don't conclude you qualify based on the year alone.

3. I only sold a home — can I file?

This part is easy to get confused.

This settlement is for qualifying buyers — not for owners who qualify merely because they sold a home.

Sellers are covered by other, separate lawsuits and settlements. If you have both bought and sold, you need to check this case's conditions against your purchase transaction; you should also confirm whether you took part in another settlement that excludes some of the related claims.

If you only sold a home and have no purchase transaction that fits this case's definition, you can't file a claim in this settlement just because you saw the $120 million figure.

4. How do I file? What do I need to prepare?

There is only one official claim portal:

https://homebuyersettlement.com/en

Once on the site, find the Submit a Claim page and follow the instructions to fill in your information.

The proof-of-purchase documents listed on the website include:

• Closing statement
• Settlement statement
• HUD statement
• Settlement letter
• Other documents relating to the home purchase and closing

These are the document types the website lists; exactly which materials you must submit is governed by what the claim form asks for when you fill it in.

If you can't find documents from back then, try contacting the closing attorney, lender, or agent from that transaction and ask whether a copy can be obtained.

Submit only clear, readable copies or electronic copies — never send originals. The website notes that supporting documents submitted will not be returned.

If an online submission succeeds, the website says an email containing a confirmation code will be sent. After submitting, keep the confirmation email, the confirmation code, and copies of the materials you submitted.

How should you think about the deadline?

Online claims must be submitted by October 27, 2026.

If you mail your claim, it must bear a qualifying postmark on or before that date. The website specifically cautions that the date you drop a letter in a mailbox or hand it to your local post office is not necessarily the actual postmark date.

The deadline is very close now. If you qualify and your documents are ready, prefer filing online through the website, and keep your confirmation records.

The claims administrator's toll-free number: 1-877-417-7662.

5. How much will each person get?

This is the question everyone cares about most, but there is currently no reliable fixed amount I can tell you.

$120,334,500 is the total of the proposed settlement fund — not an amount that every buyer gets to share equally.

Under the rules published on the website, the fund first has to cover court-approved attorneys' fees, litigation costs, administration expenses, and the like; the remainder is then distributed, under the approved distribution plan, on a pro rata basis to eligible claimants.

How much each person ultimately receives depends on factors such as the total volume of valid claims, the number of homes purchased, and the commissions paid in the relevant transactions.

Plaintiffs' counsel has said it will apply for attorneys' fees of no more than one-third of the settlement fund, but the final fee must be approved by the court and could come in below the amount requested.

The website also notes that payments are expected to be made in multiple installments over several years after the settlement is approved and becomes final. At this point, neither each person's specific amount nor the payment dates can be determined.

So don't read the $120 million as a fixed refund that is ready to be claimed, and don't believe anyone who guarantees you will receive a specific amount.

6. One more legal point that's easy to overlook

If you qualify but do nothing, what happens?

According to Question 18 of the website's FAQ, if you are a class member but don't submit a claim, you will not receive a payment from this settlement.

At the same time, if the settlement is ultimately approved and becomes effective, you may still be bound by its terms, and related claims may be released.

In other words, not submitting a claim is not the same as opting out of the class action.

The deadline to opt out of this settlement was September 17, 2026 — already past. If you have special legal concerns — for example, you have already brought a lawsuit over related commission issues — consult your own attorney rather than deciding how to proceed based on a single article.

Tony's final reminder

If you bought a home in New York or elsewhere in the U.S., this is worth checking.

But keep three points in mind:

First, having bought a home doesn't automatically mean you qualify — check the listing, the transaction dates, and the other eligibility requirements.

Second, the settlement total is not your personal refund amount; the actual distribution still depends on the court-approved plan and the valid claims filed.

Third, learn the rules and file claims only through the official settlement website. Don't pay a so-called application fee to a stranger, and don't trust messages that guarantee a refund amount.

Official portal: https://homebuyersettlement.com/en

This article is compiled from public settlement materials, for general information only; it does not constitute legal advice. Eligibility, submission requirements, deadlines, and the settlement's final status are governed by the settlement website and court documents.

Tony Huang | New York real estate agent
917-391-6633

一、先看三个数字，分别代表什么

根据三个公开来源截至 2026 年 10 月可查的资料：

来源：

Realtor.com：Queens County Housing Market

PropertyShark：Queens Housing Market Prices & Trends

Milton Coste：Queens Market Report, Q3 2026

三个数字的差距，从 65 万到 77.5 万，达到 12.5 万美元。

但这不代表同一批房子突然贵了 12.5 万美元，更不能据此判断 Queens 房价上涨了多少。

因为这三个数字，统计的并不是完全相同的对象。

二、第一种区别：挂牌价，不等于成交价

先看 Realtor.com 的 $650,000。

这是挂牌中位价，也就是当时市场上正在出售的房源，其挂牌价格的中间值。

它反映的是卖家把房子拿出来卖时，市场上正在出现怎样的报价。

但挂牌价不等于最终成交价。

卖家可以开价 80 万美元，最后可能以 76 万美元成交；也可能因为买家竞争激烈，最终成交价接近甚至高于原来的报价。

再看 PropertyShark 的 $740,000。

这是 2026 年 9 月已经记录的住宅成交中位价，统计的是已经成交的房子，而不是正在挂牌的房子。

这两个数字，一个看市场上的报价，一个看已经发生的交易。

而且，两组房源并不相同。已经成交的房子，和仍然挂在市场上的房子，本身就可能存在房型、地段、房屋状况以及价格定位上的差异。

所以，不能简单地把 $740,000 减去 $650,000，就说 Queens 的房价比挂牌价高了 9 万美元。

这两个数字适合回答不同的问题：

• 想知道卖家目前大致开什么价，可以看挂牌中位价。
• 想了解近期实际成交到了什么水平，可以看成交中位价。

但如果你想判断自己看中的一套房是否贵了，这两个数字都还不够。

三、第二种区别：统计了哪些房子？

第三个数字来自 Milton Coste 的 2026 年第三季度 Queens 市场报告。

报告显示，co-op 和 condo 的成交中位价为 $775,000，统计期间是 2026 年 7 月至 9 月，共记录 210 笔这类住宅成交。

这里有个很重要的区别：这个 $775,000 不是 Queens 所有住宅的统一成交中位价，而是 co-op 和 condo 这类公寓住宅的成交中位价。

报告还分别列出了其他住宅类型的数据。例如，报告中的独栋及其他一至四户住宅和多户住宅类别，季度成交中位价为 $1,150,000。

这也说明，同一个 Queens，房屋类型不同，价格可能相差很大。

不过，也不能反过来认为所有独栋都比所有公寓贵。具体价格还要看地段、面积、房屋状况、土地条件，以及 co-op 的持有成本和 condo 的管理费用等因素。

如果你买的是独栋屋，却拿公寓的中位价来判断自己的房子值多少钱，很容易得出不准确的结论。

同样，买 co-op 或 condo，也不能只看 Queens 所有住宅混在一起的数字。

全区中位价适合建立大致的价格概念，具体房型的成交数据，才更接近你真正需要比较的市场。

四、第三种区别：一个月和一个季度，不是一回事

前两个数字统计的是 2026 年 9 月，第三个数字统计的是整个第三季度，也就是 7 月、8 月和 9 月。

时间窗口不同，统计结果自然可能不同。

房地产成交并不是每天都以相同的价格、相同的房型发生。

某个月，如果有更多高价公寓成交，或者某些价格较低的房源成交数量减少，中位价就可能发生变化。

季度数据覆盖的时间更长，通常能减少单个月份波动带来的影响，但它也不代表每一种房型、每一个社区都呈现相同趋势。

再看一个容易被忽略的数字。

PropertyShark 的资料显示，2026 年 9 月纽约市整体住宅成交中位价约为 $885,000。

这个数字把五个行政区的住宅交易放在一起统计。

对研究整个纽约市的市场，这个数字有参考价值；但对正在 Bayside、Flushing 或 Forest Hills 看房的人来说，它不能直接告诉你当地某一类房子的合理价格。

纽约房市的特点，就是不同区域、不同房型之间的差异很大。

看市场数据，先看它覆盖的范围，再看数字本身，往往更有用。

五、看房价数据，记住三个问题

说到这里，我觉得以后看房价报告，不必急着判断市场涨了还是跌了。先把下面三个问题弄清楚。

第一，统计的是挂牌还是成交？

挂牌价反映卖家的报价，成交价反映已经发生的交易。

两者都重要，但回答的问题不一样。

第二，统计的是哪种房子？

独栋、co-op、condo，各自有不同的价格结构。

如果要判断一套具体房产的价格，尽量使用同类型房产的近期成交记录，而不是只看全区的一个数字。

第三，统计的是哪个时间段、哪个区域？

一个月和一个季度，Queens 和整个纽约市，都不能直接混在一起比较。

如果还想判断价格是涨是跌，就要进一步确认：同比比较是否使用了相同的房型范围、相同的数据来源和相同的统计方法。

不同来源公布的同比涨幅，也不一定能直接拿来排名或比较。

六、那么，买房或者卖房，究竟应该看哪个数字？

如果只是想了解 Queens 大致处于什么价格水平，全区中位价可以作为一个起点。

如果想知道某一类住宅的市场情况，应该继续看对应房型、对应区域的成交报告。

但如果问题变成：

"我看中的这套房，到底值多少钱？"

或者：

"我自己的房子，现在应该开多少价？"

这时候，就需要回到更具体的比较。

通常可以先研究最近 3 至 6 个月的成交记录，再根据房型、地段、面积、房屋状况、土地条件、装修、地下室和其他影响价值的因素，筛选出真正具有可比性的房源。

这就是房地产经纪人常说的 CMA，也就是比较市场分析。

当然，3 至 6 个月只是常用的起点。如果近期成交很少，可能需要扩大时间范围；如果市场变化快，或者房屋具有特殊条件，就要更谨慎地选择比较对象。

全区中位价告诉你市场的大致量级，具体成交比较才有助于判断一套房子的定价是否合理。

这两件事有关联，但不能互相替代。

Tony 的最后一点观察

我觉得，房价数字本身没有那么复杂，真正容易让人误解的，是把不同口径的数据当成同一回事。

看到一个数字上涨，不一定意味着你关心的那种房子也涨了同样的幅度。

看到另一个数字下降，也不代表整个 Queens 的房价都在下跌。

我们不必因为一个标题就急着得出结论，也不需要看到几个不同的数字就认为谁一定错了。

先弄清楚数字在统计什么，再判断它对自己的买房或卖房决定有没有帮助。

这比单纯盯着一个中位价，更接近真实的纽约房地产市场。

本文根据公开市场报告整理。不同来源的统计范围、时间窗口和数据采集方式可能不同，文中数字仅用于说明统计口径的差异，不构成具体房产的估值或买卖建议。具体定价应结合可比房源、近期成交及房屋自身条件综合判断。

Tony Huang｜纽约房产经纪人
917-391-6633

1. First, the three numbers — what does each one represent?

Based on three public sources, using the latest data available as of October 2026:

Sources:

Realtor.com: Queens County Housing Market

PropertyShark: Queens Housing Market Prices & Trends

Milton Coste: Queens Market Report, Q3 2026

The three numbers span from $650K to $775K — a gap of $125,000.

That doesn't mean the same batch of homes suddenly became $125,000 more expensive, and it can't be used to judge how much Queens prices have risen.

Because the three numbers aren't counting exactly the same set of homes.

2. Difference one: asking price is not sale price

Start with Realtor.com's $650,000.

This is the median listing price — the middle value among the asking prices of the homes on the market at that moment.

It reflects the asking prices appearing on the market when sellers put their homes up for sale.

But the asking price is not the final sale price.

A seller may ask $800,000 and ultimately close at $760,000; or, with buyers competing, the final sale price may land close to — or even above — the original ask.

Now look at PropertyShark's $740,000.

This is the median residential sale price recorded in September 2026. It counts homes that have already sold, not homes still listed for sale.

One number looks at asking prices on the market; the other looks at transactions that have already happened.

And the two sets of homes are not the same. Homes that have sold and homes still sitting on the market can differ in home type, location, condition, and pricing positioning to begin with.

So you can't simply subtract $650,000 from $740,000 and say Queens sale prices came in $90,000 above listing prices.

These two numbers are suited to answering different questions:

• To know roughly what sellers are currently asking, look at the median listing price.
• To understand the level at which homes have actually been trading recently, look at the median sale price.

But if you want to judge whether a specific home you're looking at is priced too high, neither number is enough on its own.

3. Difference two: which homes are counted?

The third number comes from Milton Coste's Q3 2026 Queens market report.

The report shows a median sale price of $775,000 for co-ops and condos, over the statistical period from July to September 2026, based on 210 recorded sales of this type of home.

Here's a very important distinction: this $775,000 is not a single median sale price for all homes in Queens — it's the median for one category of homes, co-ops and condos.

The report also breaks out data for other home types. For example, in the report's category of single-family and other one-to-four-family homes and multi-family homes, the quarterly median sale price was $1,150,000.

Which also shows that within the same Queens, prices can differ enormously by home type.

But don't flip that around and assume every house costs more than every apartment. The specific price still depends on location, size, condition, land conditions, and factors such as a co-op's carrying costs and a condo's management fees.

If you're buying a house but use the apartment median to judge what your home is worth, it's easy to draw an inaccurate conclusion.

Likewise, if you're buying a co-op or condo, you can't rely only on a figure that blends every Queens home together.

A borough-wide median is good for building a rough sense of price levels; sale data for a specific home type gets you closer to the market you actually need to compare against.

4. Difference three: one month and one quarter are not the same thing

The first two numbers cover September 2026; the third covers the entire third quarter — that is, July, August, and September.

With different time windows, the statistical results can naturally differ.

Real estate closings don't happen every day at the same prices and in the same mix of home types.

In a given month, if more high-priced apartments close, or the number of lower-priced sales falls, the median price can shift.

Quarterly data covers a longer period, which usually reduces the effects of single-month volatility — but it doesn't mean every home type and every neighborhood is showing the same trend.

Here's another number that's easy to overlook.

PropertyShark's data shows that the overall median residential sale price for New York City in September 2026 was about $885,000.

That number pools residential transactions across all five boroughs.

For studying the New York City market as a whole, that figure has reference value; but for someone house-hunting in Bayside, Flushing, or Forest Hills, it can't directly tell you a reasonable price for a particular type of home in that area.

A defining feature of the New York housing market is how much prices differ across areas and home types.

When reading market data, looking first at what a number covers, and only then at the number itself, is often more useful.

5. Reading home-price data: remember three questions

At this point, I think that when you read a home-price report in the future, there's no need to rush to judge whether the market rose or fell. Get the following three questions clear first.

First, is it counting listing prices or sale prices?

Listing prices reflect what sellers are asking; sale prices reflect transactions that have already happened.

Both are important, but they answer different questions.

Second, which type of home is being counted?

Houses, co-ops, and condos each have their own price structure.

To judge the price of a specific property, use recent sales records of the same type of home whenever possible, rather than a single borough-wide number.

Third, what time period and what area?

One month versus one quarter, Queens versus all of New York City — these cannot be mixed together and compared directly.

If you further want to judge whether prices rose or fell, you need to confirm: does the year-over-year comparison use the same range of home types, the same data source, and the same statistical method?

Year-over-year changes published by different sources can't necessarily be ranked or compared directly either.

6. So, buying or selling, which number should you look at?

If you only want to understand roughly what price level Queens sits at, the borough-wide median can serve as a starting point.

If you want to know the market situation for a particular type of home, you should go on to the sale reports for that home type, in that area.

But if the question becomes:

"The home I'm looking at — what is it actually worth?"

Or:

"My own home — what should I ask for it now?"

Then you need to come back to more specific comparisons.

Typically, you can start by studying the sales records of the most recent three to six months, then, based on home type, location, size, condition, land conditions, renovations, basement, and other factors affecting value, screen for homes that are genuinely comparable.

This is what real estate agents call a CMA — a comparative market analysis.

Of course, three to six months is only a common starting point. If recent sales are few, you may need to widen the time range; if the market is changing quickly, or the home has special conditions, you need to choose your comparables even more carefully.

A borough-wide median tells you the market's general scale; specific sale comparisons are what help you judge whether a particular home's price is reasonable.

The two are related, but neither can substitute for the other.

Tony's final observation

I think home-price numbers themselves aren't that complicated. What really misleads people is treating data measured on different bases as if they were the same thing.

Seeing one number rise doesn't necessarily mean the type of home you care about rose by the same amount.

Seeing another number fall doesn't mean prices are falling across all of Queens either.

We don't need to rush to conclusions because of a single headline, and we don't need to assume someone must be wrong just because several numbers differ.

First work out what a number is actually measuring, then judge whether it helps your own buying or selling decision.

That gets you closer to the real New York real estate market than simply staring at a single median price.

This article is compiled from public market reports. Different sources may differ in statistical scope, time windows, and data collection methods; the figures in this article are used only to illustrate differences in measurement basis and do not constitute a valuation of, or buying or selling advice for, any specific property. Specific pricing should be judged together with comparable homes, recent transactions, and the property's own condition.

Tony Huang | New York real estate agent
917-391-6633

大家好，我是 Tony。

2024 年，NAR（全美房地产经纪人协会）就卖家集体诉讼达成了 4.18 亿美元和解。配套的行业规则调整从 2024 年 8 月 17 日起实施。

到现在两年多了，很多人最关心的还是同一个问题：佣金有没有降？

我觉得，要回答这个问题，得先分清楚两件事：规则要求发生了什么变化，以及市场上的实际佣金发生了什么变化。

一、新规主要改变了什么？

用人话讲，有三件事值得了解。

第一，MLS 上不能再展示给买方经纪的佣金报价。

过去，挂牌信息中可能会出现卖家一方愿意给买方经纪多少报酬的内容。按照 NAR 和解相关规则，这类补偿报价不能再通过受该规则约束的 MLS 发布。

但这不等于卖家不能支付买方经纪费。卖家仍然可以通过 MLS 以外的方式协商，也可以在交易谈判中讨论由谁承担这笔费用。

第二，卖家没有义务必须支付买方经纪费。

挂牌经纪的报酬，和买方经纪的报酬，本来就是可以分别协商的事项。

卖家可以只同意支付自己挂牌经纪的报酬，也可以另外提出买方经纪补偿方案，或者根据具体交易协商其他安排。

关键是，不能把行业惯例当成强制规定。佣金金额、支付方式和承担方，都要看相关协议和交易安排。

第三，受新规约束的经纪人在带买家看房前，需要先签书面代理协议。

协议需要明确双方的代理关系和经纪报酬安排，包括如何计算报酬，以及适用的支付条件。

这意味着，买家不能再理所当然地认为，自己聘请经纪人的费用一定会全部由卖家承担。

不过，买方协议怎么写、卖家愿意承担多少、最终成交合同如何安排，是几个相关但不完全相同的问题。具体责任仍然要看签署的协议。

二、佣金新规实施后，数字真的降了吗？

先看全国数据。

美联储理事会的研究人员在 2025 年 5 月发表了一篇研究报告，分析 CoreLogic 的 MLS 数据。研究显示，全国买方经纪佣金报价的长期平均水平，从 1990 年代末约 3%，逐渐下降到 2023 年约 2.7%。

这里要注意：这是跨越二十多年的变化，不是 2024 年新规实施后突然下降的幅度。

研究人员还分析了部分州较早实施的买方代理协议要求等政策，没有发现这些政策对佣金报价产生显著、可识别的影响。但这并不能证明新规对每个市场、每种房屋都没有影响。

再看成交数据。

Redfin 于 2025 年 12 月发布的报告显示，2025 年第三季度，美国已成交房屋的买方经纪平均佣金为 2.42%，高于 2024 年第三季度的 2.36%，与 2025 年第二季度的 2.43% 基本持平。50 万美元以下房屋的平均水平为 2.52%。

这组数据反映的是 Redfin 所覆盖成交业务的统计结果，不代表全美每一笔交易，更不能直接当作纽约每套房的报价标准。

纽约都会区也有自己的特点。

美联储研究报告引用的数据表明，2022 年纽约都会区，也就是纽约州、纽约市及周边部分地区所组成的纽约都会统计区域，买方经纪佣金报价的中位数和最常见水平都是 2%。

但这是 2022 年的数据，不是 2026 年的即时统计。

把这几组数字放在一起，我的理解是：佣金新规改变了谈判和信息披露方式，但没有让佣金自动降到某个统一水平。

具体到你卖房时要付多少，仍然取决于挂牌协议、买方经纪补偿安排、房屋价格、当地市场和双方的谈判结果。

三、佣金差一个点，到手到底差多少钱？

我们拿皇后区一套成交价为 100 万美元的房子举例。

假设是适用纽约市过户税规则的普通住宅交易，暂不考虑贷款余额、其他调整项目和特殊税费。

这笔账很直观：在成交价不变、其他费用不变的前提下，100 万美元的房子，总佣金每相差 1 个百分点，差额就是 1 万美元；相差 0.5 个百分点，差额就是 5,000 美元。

不过，这里有两个细节要提醒。

第一，5% 和 4% 只是用于比较的假设，并不是纽约规定的收费标准。实际佣金可以协商，双方最终约定多少，就按照有效协议执行。

第二，表格里的余额还不是最终到手金额。卖家还可能需要支付剩余房贷、其他成交调整费用，以及适用于具体交易的其他费用。真正的净收入，需要根据结算单逐项核算。

纽约州过户税也不能永远按同一个比例套用：住宅交易在不同成交价区间可能适用不同税率。这个例子采用的 0.4% 适用于这里假设的 100 万美元交易。

四、如果我不付买方经纪费，是不是就省下了？

这也是很多卖家最想问的问题。

假设你原本打算支付 2.5% 的挂牌经纪佣金，同时另外协商买方经纪补偿。现在，你决定不提供买方经纪补偿。

从账面上看，如果其他条件完全相同，你确实少承担了这一项费用。

但真实交易没有那么简单。

买方可能需要根据自己签署的代理协议承担经纪报酬。面对这笔成本，有些买家可能会降低出价，也有人可能在谈判中要求卖家提供一定的成交让步，以帮助覆盖相关成本。

当然，这些情况并不是每笔交易都会发生，也不能假设买家一定会要求卖家补回来。

因此，我更愿意把问题换成这样：

不提供买方经纪补偿之后，你的房子还能不能保持足够的竞争力？

如果同一区域需求旺盛、房源稀缺，卖家可能有更大的谈判空间。如果买家选择多、房屋之间竞争激烈，那么就需要更认真地比较不同方案对看房、报价和最终净收入的影响。

不要只看佣金栏少了多少，也要看最后的成交条件。

五、和经纪谈佣金之前，先问清楚这六件事

1. 总共收多少？每一部分分别是多少？

挂牌经纪的报酬是多少？如果另外提供买方经纪补偿，金额或计算方式是什么？把双方同意的安排写清楚，不要只听一个总数。

2. 买家没有经纪，或者自己承担经纪费用时，原先谈好的安排怎么处理？

不要假设买方经纪那部分会自动退回给卖家。应该在签约前明确费用如何计算、何时支付，以及什么情况下适用。

3. 如果我不提供买方经纪补偿，会有什么实际影响？

请经纪结合附近类似房屋的成交情况、买家需求和竞争房源解释，而不是简单告诉你一定有影响，或者一定没有影响。

4. 独家挂牌协议有多长时间？

如果中途想换经纪，或者决定不卖了，解约条件是什么？是否涉及已发生的费用或其他责任？这些问题最好在签约之前确认。

5. 佣金之外还有哪些费用？

摄影、视频、广告、开放日和其他营销服务是否包含在协议里？哪些需要另付费？不同服务的实际交付内容是什么？

6. 报酬能不能采用其他结构？

除了按成交价比例计算，也可以询问是否接受固定金额，或者在合法、合规且双方同意的前提下，采用分段比例等其他计算方式。

重点不是哪一种方式听起来更便宜，而是费用对应的服务、计算方式和支付条件是否清楚。

最后，佣金和卖价，应该放在一起算

我一直觉得，卖房时最容易忽略的一件事，就是只盯着佣金，却没有把整个交易放在一起比较。

比如，同样一套房子，一种方案佣金少付 5,000 美元，但最后成交价也低了 10,000 美元；另一种方案佣金高一点，却获得了更好的成交条件。

在这个假设下，单看佣金显然不能说明哪个方案更划算。

当然，这也不是说佣金不重要。佣金是真金白银，完全值得认真谈。

我的建议很简单：签约前，把挂牌服务、佣金安排、营销计划和预计净收入放在一起看。让每一项费用都有明确的约定，也让每一个决定都有可以比较的依据。

卖房不是佣金越低越好，也不是佣金越高服务就一定越好。真正值得比较的，是扣除所有相关费用之后，你最终能拿到多少钱，以及整个交易过程是否符合你的预期。

本文数据用于一般性参考，不构成法律或税务建议。具体佣金、过户税及其他费用，请根据房屋类型、成交价格、适用法规和正式协议核实。

Tony Huang｜纽约房产经纪人
917-391-6633

Hi everyone, I'm Tony.

In 2024, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reached a $418 million settlement in the seller class-action lawsuits. The accompanying industry rule changes took effect on August 17, 2024.

More than two years on, the question most people still care about is the same: have commissions gone down?

I think answering that question requires separating two things: what the rules changed, and what has actually happened to commissions in the market.

1. What did the new rules mainly change?

In plain language, there are three things worth knowing.

First, commission offers to buyer's agents can no longer be displayed on the MLS.

In the past, a listing might show how much compensation the seller's side was willing to offer the buyer's agent. Under the rules tied to the NAR settlement, that kind of compensation offer can no longer be published through an MLS covered by those rules.

But that doesn't mean a seller can't pay the buyer's agent. A seller can still negotiate through channels outside the MLS, or discuss who bears the cost as part of the transaction negotiation.

Second, a seller has no obligation to pay the buyer's agent's fee.

The listing agent's compensation and the buyer's agent's compensation have always been separately negotiable items.

A seller can agree to pay only their own listing agent's compensation, or separately offer compensation to the buyer's agent, or negotiate some other arrangement for a specific transaction.

The key point: don't treat industry custom as a mandatory rule. The commission amount, how it's paid, and who bears it all depend on the relevant agreements and the transaction arrangement.

Third, agents covered by the new rules must sign a written buyer agreement before touring a home with a buyer.

The agreement has to spell out the agency relationship and the agent's compensation arrangement, including how the compensation is calculated and the conditions under which it's paid.

That means buyers can no longer take it for granted that the cost of hiring their own agent will necessarily be covered in full by the seller.

Of course, how the buyer agreement is written, how much the seller is willing to bear, and how the final contract is arranged are related but not identical questions. Specific obligations still depend on the signed agreements.

2. After the new rules, did the numbers actually come down?

Start with the national data.

In May 2025, researchers at the Federal Reserve Board published a study analyzing CoreLogic MLS data. It showed that the long-run average level of buyer-agent commission offers nationwide drifted down gradually, from about 3% in the late 1990s to about 2.7% by 2023.

Note carefully: this is a change spanning more than twenty years — not a sudden drop after the 2024 rules took effect.

The researchers also analyzed policies such as buyer-agency agreement requirements that some states had adopted earlier, and found no significant, identifiable effect of those policies on commission offers. But that doesn't prove the new rules have had no effect on any given market or type of home.

Now look at transaction data.

A Redfin report released in December 2025 showed that in the third quarter of 2025, the average buyer-agent commission on closed U.S. home sales was 2.42% — higher than the 2.36% of Q3 2024, and essentially flat versus 2.43% in Q2 2025. For homes under $500,000, the average was 2.52%.

These figures reflect the transactions covered by Redfin's statistics. They don't represent every transaction in the country, and they certainly can't be used directly as the quoting standard for every home in New York.

The New York metro area has its own characteristics.

Data cited in the Fed study shows that in 2022, in the New York metropolitan area — the metropolitan statistical area made up of New York State, New York City, and surrounding areas — the median and most common buyer-agent commission offers were both 2%.

But that's 2022 data, not a real-time statistic for 2026.

Putting these numbers together, my read is this: the new commission rules changed how things are negotiated and disclosed, but they didn't automatically bring commissions down to some uniform level.

What you'll actually pay when you sell still depends on the listing agreement, the buyer-agent compensation arrangement, the home's price, the local market, and how the negotiation turns out.

3. One point of commission — how much difference does it make to what you take home?

Take a Queens home that sells for $1,000,000 as an example.

Assume an ordinary residential transaction subject to New York City transfer tax rules, and set aside mortgage balances, other adjustments, and special taxes and fees for the moment.

The math is intuitive: if the sale price and all other costs stay the same, on a $1 million home, every one percentage point of total commission is a $10,000 difference; half a point is a $5,000 difference.

But two details deserve a reminder.

First, 5% and 4% are only assumptions used for comparison, not a fee standard set by New York. Actual commissions are negotiable; whatever the two sides finally agree to is what the valid agreement says.

Second, the balance in the table is not the final amount you take home. A seller may also need to pay off the remaining mortgage, other closing adjustments, and other fees that apply to the specific transaction. Your true net proceeds have to be worked out line by line from the closing statement.

Nor can the New York State transfer tax always be applied at the same rate: residential transactions in different price ranges may be subject to different rates. The 0.4% used in this example applies to the assumed $1 million transaction here.

4. If I don't pay the buyer's agent's fee, have I actually saved that money?

This is the question many sellers most want to ask.

Suppose you originally planned to pay a 2.5% listing commission, and separately negotiate compensation for the buyer's agent. Now you decide not to offer any buyer-agent compensation.

On paper, if everything else is identical, you do bear one less cost.

But real transactions aren't that simple.

A buyer may have to bear their agent's compensation under the agency agreement they signed. Faced with that cost, some buyers may lower their offer, and others may ask the seller for a closing concession during negotiation to help cover the related cost.

Of course, this doesn't happen in every transaction, and you can't assume a buyer will necessarily ask the seller to make it up.

So I prefer to reframe the question this way:

If you don't offer buyer-agent compensation, can your home stay competitive enough?

If demand in the area is strong and homes are scarce, the seller may have more negotiating room. If buyers have many choices and homes compete hard against each other, you need to compare more carefully how different approaches affect showings, offers, and your final net proceeds.

Don't just look at how much the commission line shrinks — look at the final deal terms as well.

5. Before you talk commissions with an agent, get these six things clear

1. How much in total? And how much is each part?

The listing agent's compensation is how much? If buyer-agent compensation is offered on top, what's the amount, or how is it calculated? Write down what both sides agreed to — don't just listen to a single total.

2. If the buyer has no agent, or pays their own agent's fee, how is the arrangement we agreed on handled?

Don't assume the buyer-agent portion automatically comes back to the seller. Before signing, spell out how the fees are calculated, when they're paid, and under what circumstances they apply.

3. If I don't offer buyer-agent compensation, what's the actual impact?

Ask the agent to explain using recent sales of similar homes nearby, buyer demand, and competing listings — not simply tell you it definitely will have an impact, or definitely won't.

4. How long is the exclusive listing agreement?

If you want to change agents midway, or decide not to sell, what are the termination conditions? Are there fees already incurred or other obligations involved? Best to confirm all this before signing.

5. What other costs are there beyond the commission?

Are photography, video, advertising, open houses, and other marketing services included in the agreement? Which ones cost extra? What exactly is delivered for each service?

6. Can the compensation use a different structure?

Besides a percentage of the sale price, you can also ask whether they'd accept a flat fee, or — where lawful, compliant, and agreed by both sides — a tiered percentage or another calculation method.

The point isn't which approach sounds cheaper. It's whether the services the fee pays for, how it's calculated, and the payment conditions are all clear.

Finally, commissions and sale price should be calculated together

The thing I think is most easily overlooked when selling is staring only at the commission, without comparing the transaction as a whole.

For example, with the same home, one approach pays $5,000 less in commission but the final sale price also comes in $10,000 lower; another approach pays a bit more in commission but achieves better deal terms.

Under that assumption, looking at the commission alone clearly can't tell you which approach is the better deal.

Of course, that doesn't mean commissions don't matter. Commissions are real money, entirely worth negotiating seriously.

My suggestion is simple: before you sign, look at the listing service, the commission arrangement, the marketing plan, and your projected net proceeds together. Give every fee a clear agreement, and every decision a basis for comparison.

Selling isn't a case of the lower the commission the better, nor does a higher commission necessarily mean better service. What deserves comparison is how much you ultimately take home after all the related costs — and whether the whole transaction process matches what you expected.

The data in this article is for general reference only and does not constitute legal or tax advice. For specific commissions, transfer taxes, and other fees, please verify against the home type, sale price, applicable regulations, and the formal agreements.

Tony Huang | New York real estate agent
917-391-6633

大家好，我是 Tony。

先说一句让你稍微松口气的话：房子三个月没卖掉，不一定全是你的问题。

拿 Flushing 举例。根据 Realtor.com 可查到的 2026 年 9 月市场数据，当地房屋挂牌中位天数约为 78 天，成交价平均约为要价的 96%，平台将其归类为买方市场。

这说明，当时当地的房屋交易节奏和议价环境，确实需要卖家多一点耐心。不过，区域平均数据只能提供参考，不能直接判断你家为什么卖不掉。

而且，越是买家选择多的市场，定价和房屋呈现上的小问题，就越容易被放大。

我觉得，房子挂了三个月，最值得先检查的，就是下面这五项。

第 1 项：定价——你参考的是成交价，还是邻居的要价？

这是我会优先检查的一项。

方法其实很简单：打开 Zillow、Redfin，或者让你的经纪提供附近的近期成交记录，找过去三到六个月真正成交的房子，挑出三套条件比较接近的。

重点看什么？

• 房屋类型、面积、卧室和卫生间数量是否相近。
• 房屋状况、装修水平、地段和周边环境是否接近。
• 实际成交价和每平方英尺成交价是多少。
• 你的挂牌价与这些成交结果相差多少。

这里有一个很容易犯的错误。

你看到隔壁一套房子挂了 $1,200,000，就觉得自己的房子至少也值 $1,150,000。

但隔壁那套可能已经挂了四个月，甚至还没有收到合适的报价。

它的挂牌价，只能说明卖家希望卖多少钱，并不能证明市场愿意付多少钱。

当然，近期成交价也不是绝对答案。房屋条件、成交时间、特殊交易情况都可能造成差异。

真正要问的是：你的挂牌价，有没有足够的成交数据支持？

如果价格明显高于可比房屋，又没有装修、位置或其他条件上的优势，就值得重新评估。

至于要不要降价、降多少，最好结合近期成交、当前竞争房源和实际看房反馈一起判断，而不是每隔几周随意降一点。

第 2 项：照片和房屋呈现——买家可能还没看房，就已经划走了

现在很多买家第一次接触一套房子，就是在手机屏幕上。

照片没有吸引力，或者关键信息不清楚，买家可能根本不会预约看房。

你可以先检查几件事：

• 首图是不是最能体现房屋优势的一张？
• 室内照片有没有逆光、过暗、杂物太多的问题？
• 房屋面积、卧室数量、卫生间数量、房产税等基本信息是否准确？
• 文案除了介绍房间数量，有没有讲清楚这套房子的实际特点？
• 地图定位、地址和不同平台上的房源信息是否一致？

还有一个细节值得注意：照片不一定越多越好，关键是能不能帮助买家理解房屋布局和实际状况。

如果房子有采光、庭院、地下室、独立车库或者其他特色，应该通过真实、清楚的照片和文字呈现出来。

但不要为了让房子显得更好而隐瞒缺点，或者使用容易造成误解的描述。

照片的作用不是把房子包装成另一个样子，而是让合适的买家愿意进一步了解它。

第 3 项：看房安排——想看的人，能不能方便地进来？

有时候，问题不一定出在房子本身，而是看房安排不够方便。

你可以问自己几个问题：

• 看房预约通常多久才能得到回复？
• 周末有没有安排开放日？
• 预约时段是否合理？
• 如果租客还住在里面，或者家里有老人、孩子，是否提前协调好了看房时间？
• 经纪是否能够及时反馈预约情况？

这里还有一个特别值得关注的数字：每周实际有多少组看房？

如果附近条件相似的房子持续有人看，而你的房子几乎没有人预约，就值得进一步调查。

可能是价格让买家在网上就排除了你，也可能是照片没有吸引力，或者预约流程不方便。

反过来，如果每周都有不少人来看，却始终没有人出价，问题可能在房屋状况、价格预期、买家反馈或其他交易条件上。

当然，不同房屋、不同区域和不同季节的看房量差异很大，不能只凭一个数字下结论。

关键是把看房量和附近可比房源放在一起看。

第 4 项：买家反馈——为什么看过的人，最后没有出价？

这是我认为特别容易被忽略的一项。

有人来看房，最后没有出价，并不意味着这次看房毫无价值。

如果能把反馈收集起来，反而可能帮助你发现问题。

你可以向经纪了解三件事。

第一，看房后的具体反馈。

买家觉得价格高、房子需要维修、布局不合适，还是对周边环境有顾虑？

尽量了解买家或对方经纪的具体意见，而不是只得到一句"他们觉得不合适"。

当然，买家不一定会留下反馈，也不一定愿意说明真实原因。

第二，房源的线上表现。

如果平台或经纪后台能够提供，可以了解浏览量、收藏量、预约量等数据。

浏览量不错，却几乎没人预约，可能需要重新检查照片、定价和房源描述。

如果浏览量本身就很低，也值得检查房源曝光、信息完整度和市场竞争情况。

这些只是诊断线索，不是单凭某个数字就能确定原因。

第三，所有收到过的询问和报价。

不要只关注正式书面报价。买家表达过的价格范围、提出的条件，以及经纪收到的相关询问，都可能提供有价值的信息。

如果收到的报价一直低于预期，也不要马上把它们当成冒犯。

先看看这些报价是否集中在某个区间，再结合近期成交数据判断：究竟是买家出价偏低，还是你的价格预期需要调整。

如果经纪无法提供任何具体反馈，或者很久没有主动更新情况，卖家完全可以要求定期沟通，约定每周或每两周回顾一次房源表现。

第 5 项：挂牌时间——现在应该继续等，还是改变策略？

最后，把挂牌时间和当地市场情况放在一起看。

假设你所在区域的挂牌中位天数约为 80 天，而你的房子已经挂了 90 天。

这不代表房子一定有问题。中位数只是一个参考值，并不意味着每套房都应该在 80 天内成交。

但如果你的房子已经挂了 160 天，而附近条件相近的房源能够正常成交，就值得认真复盘了。

可以按照下面的思路判断：

• 挂牌时间略长，但持续有人看房。先分析反馈，确认是否存在可以改善的细节，不必仅仅因为天数增加就立刻大幅降价。
• 挂牌时间很长，看房量却很少。优先重新检查定价、照片、房源信息和看房安排。
• 看房量不错，但始终没有报价。重点分析买家反馈、房屋状况、价格预期和交易条件。
• 挂牌时间很长，价格和呈现也确实存在问题。就应该认真考虑重新定价，或者先改善房屋呈现，再制定新的销售计划。

还有一个容易被误解的地方：撤下房源再重新挂牌，不代表过去的记录一定会消失。

不同平台和 MLS 对挂牌天数、累计挂牌天数及历史记录的处理方式可能不同。部分历史信息仍可能被买家查到。

所以，重新挂牌如果只是换一个日期，却没有改变价格策略、房屋呈现或销售安排，未必能够解决原来的问题。

另外，年底假期可能影响部分买家的看房安排，但季节因素也不能成为所有滞销房源的统一解释。最好结合当地实际需求判断。

最后说几句

查完这五项，你应该能对房子的处境有一个更清楚的判断。

是价格的问题，是照片和呈现的问题，是看房安排的问题，是买家反馈没有得到重视，还是当地市场本身就需要更长的成交时间？

这些问题的处理方式并不一样。

我一直觉得，卖房最怕的不是房子暂时卖不掉，而是还没有弄清楚原因，就急着做决定。

调价不是认输，而是重新和市场对表。

如果数据表明价格需要调整，就认真算清楚；如果问题在呈现和执行上，就先把这些地方做好。

先找原因，再决定动哪一刀。这比一上来就降价 5%，更有依据。

本文分享一般性的卖房实务经验，不构成对任何具体房源的定价建议。市场数据会随时间变化，具体决策应结合当地近期成交记录、房屋条件和实际看房反馈。

事实来源

• Realtor.com，Flushing 市场数据，2026 年 9 月：挂牌中位天数、成交价与要价比例，以及平台对当地市场的分类。数据页面会持续更新，引用时应注明统计月份。
• Redfin，Flushing 市场数据，2026 年 9 月：可用于交叉参考，但其挂牌天数、成交样本和统计口径与 Realtor.com 不完全相同。
• 文中的五项检查清单属于 Tony 的卖房实务总结，不是对所有滞销房源的统计性结论。

Tony Huang｜纽约房产经纪人
917-391-6633

Hi everyone, I'm Tony.

Let me start with something that may ease your mind: if your home hasn't sold in three months, that doesn't automatically mean you've done something wrong.

Take Flushing. According to Realtor.com's September 2026 market data, homes had a median of about 78 days on the market, and the average sale price was approximately 96% of asking. Realtor.com classified the area as a buyer's market at the time.

Those figures provide useful context, but they cannot tell us why an individual property hasn't sold. And when buyers have more choices, pricing and presentation become even more important.

If your home has been sitting for three months, here are five things I'd check first.

1. Pricing — Are You Looking at Sold Prices or a Neighbor's Asking Price?

This is where I'd start.

Look at comparable homes that actually sold in the last three to six months. You can search Zillow or Redfin, or ask your agent for recent comparable sales.

Compare the property type, size, condition, location, and actual sale price. Price per square foot can also help, provided the homes are genuinely comparable.

One common mistake is using a neighbor's asking price as proof of what your own home is worth.

But if that home has been listed for four months without selling, its asking price tells you what the seller hopes to receive, not what a buyer is willing to pay.

Recent sales are not a perfect answer either. Property condition, timing, and unusual transaction circumstances can all affect the result.

The real question is whether your asking price is supported by comparable sales and current competition.

If it is materially above comparable properties without a clear reason, it may be time to reassess.

2. Photos and Presentation — Are Buyers Moving On Before They Ever Visit?

For many buyers, the first showing happens on a phone screen.

Check whether your lead photo presents the home well, whether interior photos are dark or cluttered, and whether the listing information is accurate and complete.

Does the description explain what makes the property appealing, or does it simply say "three bedrooms, two bathrooms, near transit"?

Also check the address, map location, and consistency of the listing details across platforms.

The goal isn't to make the home look like something it isn't. It's to help the right buyers understand its genuine strengths and decide whether they want to see it in person.

3. Showings — Can Interested Buyers Actually Get Inside?

Sometimes the problem isn't the property itself. It may be the showing arrangements.

How quickly are requests answered? Are weekend appointments available? If tenants are living in the property, or family schedules are complicated, are showing times coordinated in advance?

Then look at the actual number of showings per week.

If comparable homes nearby are attracting buyers while yours receives very few visits, investigate the price, online presentation, and accessibility.

If people are visiting but nobody makes an offer, the next step is different. You need to understand what those buyers thought about the property, its condition, and its price.

Showing counts vary by property and season, so they should be compared with similar local listings rather than interpreted in isolation.

4. Feedback — Why Did Buyers Visit but Not Make an Offer?

Every showing can provide useful information, even when it doesn't lead to an offer.

Ask your agent about three things.

First, what feedback has been received from buyers or their agents? Were they concerned about the price, repairs, layout, or something else?

Second, what online performance data is available? If the relevant platform or agent dashboard provides it, views, saves, and showing requests may help identify where buyers are losing interest.

Third, what inquiries and offers have come in so far? Even a low offer can provide information about buyer expectations, although it should always be evaluated against comparable sales.

If buyers are visiting but consistently offering less than expected, compare their offers with recent sales before deciding whether the market or your pricing expectations need to change.

Buyers do not always provide feedback, and online metrics do not prove a particular cause. The goal is to look for patterns rather than jump to conclusions.

5. Timing — Should You Wait or Change the Strategy?

Finally, compare your days on market with the local market, using similar properties and a consistent data source.

If the local median is around 80 days and your home has been listed for 90 days, that alone does not mean something is wrong. A median is a reference point, not a deadline for every property.

But if your home has been listed for 160 days while comparable properties continue to sell, it's time for a serious review.

If showings continue, analyze the feedback before making a major change. If showings are scarce, revisit the price, photos, listing details, and appointment arrangements. If buyers visit but don't offer, focus on what they're saying about the property and its terms.

Relisting deserves special attention, too. Taking a home off the market and putting it back on does not guarantee that its previous history will disappear. Platforms and MLS systems handle listing days and historical records differently, and some information may remain visible.

A relaunch is more meaningful when it comes with a genuine change in strategy, not simply a new listing date.

Seasonality can affect buyer activity, particularly around holidays, but it should be considered alongside actual local demand rather than used as a blanket explanation.

One Final Thought

After checking these five areas, you should have a clearer idea of what you're dealing with: pricing, presentation, showing arrangements, buyer feedback, or simply the pace of the local market.

The biggest mistake isn't having a home that takes longer to sell. It's making a major decision before understanding why.

Adjusting the price isn't surrender. It's recalibrating your expectations against the market.

If the data supports a price adjustment, work out the numbers carefully. If the problem is presentation or execution, address those issues first.

Diagnose before you decide. That's a more informed approach than immediately cutting the price by 5%.

This article shares general selling experience and is not a pricing recommendation for any specific property. Decisions should be based on recent comparable sales, property condition, and actual buyer feedback.

Tony Huang | New York real estate agent
917-391-6633

先看数字（2026 年 10 月 11 日）：

Freddie Mac 10 月 8 日发布：30 年固定房贷利率 7.40%，比上周涨 0.12，连涨 7 周，2023 年 11 月以来最高，一年前是 6.30%。15 年固定 6.73%。MBA（抵押贷款银行家协会）另一套口径报 7.49%——两套别混着用，说"7.4%–7.5% 区间"最稳。

但真正的新闻在房贷利率背后：10 年期美国国债收益率这周一度冲到 5.36%，24 年新高（上次见还是 2002 年），周五收在 5.24%。30 年期国债到 5.7%，也是 24 年新高。

反常识的一面：美联储说了不算，国债市场说了算。

很多人以为：美联储加息 → 房贷涨；美联储降息 → 房贷跌。错。2024 年 9 月美联储开始降息，房贷利率一开始反而往上走——因为房贷利率盯的是 10 年期国债，不是联邦基金利率。

这轮也一样：9 月 FOMC 加了 25 个基点到 3.75%–4.00%，但把房贷从 6.65% 推到 7.40% 的，是国债收益率一路走高。推国债收益率的，是通胀担忧、财政赤字压力，和国债拍卖时买家不够踊跃。翻译成人话：全世界买美债的人，要求更高的利息才肯接。

对买房人的意思：

MBA 的数据：购房贷款申请同比跌了 15%，再融资申请同比跌了 56%。买家已经在用脚投票。

三句话：一，别等"降息救你"。接下来两次 FOMC 会议是 10 月 27–28 日和 12 月 8–9 日，市场定价是 10 月大概率不动、12 月大概率再加。降息救房贷，这出戏今年演不了。二，7.4% 可能不是顶。只要 10 年期国债还在 5% 以上待着，房贷就没有下来的理由。盯着每周四 Freddie Mac 的发布，比猜顶靠谱。三，谈判比等待实在。让卖家出钱做利率买断（buydown）、谈价格、谈 closing costs——利率高的时候，卖家让步的空间反而大。

最后说句实在的：利率这东西，猜不如看。看什么？每周四的 Freddie Mac，10 年期国债收益率，和 12 月 8–9 日的 FOMC 点阵图。日子到了看结果，再做决定。

下一步：买家去算一笔"7.4% 下我的月供"；卖家去查一下同小区最近成交价。

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The numbers first (October 11, 2026):

Freddie Mac's October 8 release: the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 7.40%, up 0.12 from last week — seven straight weekly increases, the highest since November 2023; a year ago it was 6.30%. The 15-year fixed is 6.73%. The MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) survey reads 7.49% — two surveys, don't mix them; "the 7.4%–7.5% range" is safest.

The real news is behind mortgage rates: the 10-year Treasury yield spiked to 5.36% this week — a 24-year high (last seen in 2002) — closing Friday at 5.24%. The 30-year Treasury hit 5.7%, also a 24-year high.

The counterintuitive side: the Fed doesn't set mortgage rates — the bond market does.

Many assume: Fed hikes → mortgages up; Fed cuts → mortgages down. Wrong. When the Fed started cutting in September 2024, mortgage rates initially rose — because mortgages track the 10-year Treasury, not the federal funds rate.

Same this round: September's FOMC added 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%, but what pushed mortgages from 6.65% to 7.40% is the steady climb in Treasury yields — driven by inflation worries, deficit pressure, and soft demand at Treasury auctions. In plain words: buyers of US debt now demand higher interest to show up.

What it means for buyers:

MBA data: purchase applications down 15% year over year; refinances down 56%. Buyers are already voting with their feet.

Three lines: one — don't wait to be "saved by cuts." The next two FOMC meetings are October 27–28 and December 8–9; markets price October as a hold and December as a likely hike. Rate cuts riding to the rescue of mortgages — not this year. Two — 7.4% may not be the top. As long as the 10-year sits above 5%, mortgages have no reason to come down. Watching Freddie Mac's Thursday release beats guessing the top. Three — negotiating beats waiting. Get the seller to fund a buydown, negotiate price, negotiate closing costs — when rates are high, sellers have more room to give.

The bottom line: with rates, watching beats guessing. Watch three things: Freddie Mac every Thursday, the 10-year Treasury yield, and the December 8–9 FOMC dot plot. When the day comes, look at the result, then decide.

Next step: buyers, run your own "monthly payment at 7.4%"; sellers, check your neighborhood's latest closed prices.

---

先看大盘（realtor.com，2026 年 8 月数据）：

Bayside 挂牌中位价 $598,000，每平方英尺 $551，租金中位 $3,250/月。对比一下：Flushing 挂牌中位 $669,000–$696,000。Bayside 整体比 Flushing 低一截——但这是中位数，里面 co-op 拉低了平均数。分房型看才准（OneKey MLS 2026 年 3 月成交数据）：

Co-op：$325,000（中位成交价）

— 首付 20%：$65,000

— Closing costs（过户费、律师、各类税费）：约 $15,000–$20,000

— 总共准备：约 $80,000–$85,000

— 注意：co-op 要过董事会，首付比例、现金储备、负债比都有要求；很多楼要求首付 20%–25% 起步，贷款预批先拿好再去看房。

Condo：$780,000（中位成交价）

— 首付 20%：$156,000

— Closing costs：约 $25,000–$35,000（纽约的 mansion tax 从 100 万起征，78 万不用交，但 transfer tax、律师费跑不掉）

— 总共准备：约 $180,000–$190,000

— 注意：condo 没董事会，但 HOA/管理费每月几百到上千，算月供的时候别漏了。

独栋屋 House：$1,080,000（中位成交价）

— 首付 20%：$216,000

— Closing costs：约 $40,000–$50,000（过 100 万有 1% mansion tax，108 万就是 $10,800）

— 总共准备：约 $255,000–$265,000

— 注意：house 的地税是三类里最高的，Bayside 独栋年地税上万是常态，月供里地税那部分可能比你想的多。

和 Flushing 比，Bayside 的特点：

一，co-op 选择多、门槛低，是预算 10 万以内的第一站。二，独栋是真贵，百万起步，但地大、学区好（Bayside 高中口碑在那）。三，condo 夹在中间，780k 的中位数，适合不想管院子、又想要产权的人。

最后说句实在的： "在 Bayside 买房要多少钱"没有一个数字，答案取决于你要哪种房子。先定房型，再算钱——顺序反了，看到的都是错的数字。上面的 closing costs 都是估算，精确数字等你有具体房子了，律师会给你 HUD-1 逐项列。

下一步：先定房型（co-op / condo / house），再按上面的公式算你的首付+过户费。看中具体房子前，先去 NYC 财政局网站（nyc.gov/finance）查那套房的地税——地税是月供里最容易被低估的部分。

---

The big picture (realtor.com, August 2026):

Bayside's median list price is $598,000, $551 per square foot, median rent $3,250/month. For comparison: Flushing's median list runs $669,000–$696,000. Bayside looks cheaper overall — but that's the median, pulled down by co-ops. By property type is the honest view (OneKey MLS closed sales, March 2026):

Co-op: $325,000 (median closed price)

— 20% down: $65,000

— Closing costs (transfer taxes, attorney, lender fees): about $15,000–$20,000

— Total to prepare: about $80,000–$85,000

— Note: co-ops mean a board — down payment ratios, cash reserves, and debt ratios all get scrutinized; many buildings want 20%–25% down minimum. Get the pre-approval before you tour.

Condo: $780,000 (median closed price)

— 20% down: $156,000

— Closing costs: about $25,000–$35,000 (New York's mansion tax starts at $1M — $780K avoids it, but transfer tax and attorney fees don't go away)

— Total to prepare: about $180,000–$190,000

— Note: no board for condos, but HOA/maintenance runs hundreds to over a thousand a month — don't leave it out of the monthly math.

Single-family house: $1,080,000 (median closed price)

— 20% down: $216,000

— Closing costs: about $40,000–$50,000 (over $1M triggers the 1% mansion tax — $10,800 on $1.08M)

— Total to prepare: about $255,000–$265,000

— Note: houses carry the highest property tax of the three; five-figure annual tax bills are normal for Bayside singles — the tax slice of the monthly payment may be bigger than you think.

Bayside vs. Flushing:

One: plenty of co-ops, low entry bar — the first stop on a sub-$100K budget. Two: detached houses are genuinely expensive, seven figures and up — but bigger lots and strong schools (Bayside High's reputation stands). Three: condos sit in the middle at a $780K median — for buyers who want ownership without a yard to maintain.

The bottom line: "What does it cost to buy in Bayside" has no single number — it depends on the property type. Pick the type first, then do the money math — reverse the order and every number you see will be wrong. Closing costs above are estimates; once you have a specific home, your attorney's HUD-1 will itemize the exact figures.

Next step: lock in the property type (co-op / condo / house), then run the down-payment-plus-closing formula above. Before you fall for a specific listing, look up its property tax on the NYC Department of Finance site (nyc.gov/finance) — tax is the most underestimated slice of the monthly payment.

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Tony 的观察：看懂一个投资大师，不是照抄他的持仓

最近，Bill Ackman 在一次采访中谈到一个挺有意思的矛盾。

他担心 AI 的发展可能带来极其严重的风险，但与此同时，他却在研究和投资微软、亚马逊、Meta 这样的科技巨头。

一边担心 AI，一边看好 AI 相关企业，这听起来是不是有点矛盾？

但我觉得，这恰恰是这次采访最值得研究的地方。

Ackman 的逻辑并不是 AI 没有风险，而是他认为，即使 AI 可能改变整个世界，真正值得投资的公司，未必是那些最会讲 AI 故事的公司，也可能是那些已经拥有客户、商业模式、基础设施和现金流的企业。

他还提到，按照自己团队的估值分析，微软、亚马逊、Meta 等部分持仓，长期预期年化内部收益率（IRR）可能超过 20%。

这里先说清楚：这是 Ackman 对特定投资机会的判断，不是已经实现的收益，更不是未来回报的保证。

我更感兴趣的，不是他预测这些股票能涨多少，而是他为什么认为市场可能低估了这些公司的长期价值。

普通人未必能复制他的投资组合，但有些思考方法，确实值得拆开看看。

一、AI 风险这么大，为什么他还要投资？

Ackman 把 AI 的竞争形容成核武器竞赛。

这个比喻听起来很极端，但他想表达的核心是：AI 可能带来巨大的经济和技术进步，也可能产生严重的安全风险。与此同时，如果某个国家或竞争者率先取得重大突破，其他参与者可能担心自己落后，因而不愿轻易停下来。

这就形成了一个难题：即使大家都知道风险存在，也不一定愿意单方面放慢发展速度。

但从投资角度看，我觉得这里更值得思考的是另一件事。

一个技术可能存在风险，不等于所有与它相关的企业都没有投资价值；反过来，技术前景巨大，也不等于所有相关股票都值得买。

这两个问题必须分开。

比如，一家公司确实有能力把 AI 产品卖给大量企业，但如果它为了争夺市场投入太多资金，最后赚到的钱不足以覆盖成本，技术领先也未必能转化为股东回报。

另一家公司即使没有最先进的模型，如果它拥有庞大的企业客户、成熟的云服务、稳定的分销渠道和较强的定价能力，也可能从 AI 普及中获得收益。

所以，与其只问哪家公司会在 AI 竞赛中胜出，不如多问几句：

它靠什么赚钱？客户为什么愿意付钱？竞争对手能不能轻易取代它？未来的投入，能不能带来足够的现金流？

这才是我认为普通投资者可以借鉴的思考方式。

二、科技巨头疯狂建数据中心，到底是在烧钱，还是在投资未来？

这是我觉得整场讨论里，最值得普通人认真研究的商业问题之一。

微软、亚马逊等公司持续投入资金建设数据中心、购买芯片、扩充云计算能力。

这些投入规模很大，市场自然会问：如果未来 AI 的需求没有预期那么强，这些钱还能不能赚回来？

Ackman 的看法是，大型科技公司的资本开支，可能是在为未来的增长提前建设能力。如果需求持续增加，而这些企业又能把投入转化为利润和现金流，那么今天的资本开支就可能成为未来竞争优势的一部分。

但这里不能简单地把"花钱多"理解成"需求强"，更不能把"需求强"直接等同于"投资回报高"。

我觉得判断这件事，可以看三个层面。

第一，投入的钱有没有带来真实收入？

建设数据中心、购买芯片，只是支出。最终还要看企业能不能通过云服务、AI 产品或其他业务获得客户付费。

第二，新增收入能不能覆盖新增成本？

收入增长不代表利润一定增长。电力、芯片、折旧、维护和融资成本，都可能影响最终的经济回报。

第三，这些投入能不能形成长期竞争优势？

如果一家公司今天投入大量资金，未来却发现客户可以轻易转向竞争对手，或者技术迭代让现有设备很快失去价值，那么巨额资本开支反而可能成为负担。

这也是为什么，我不太喜欢单纯用"AI 是未来"来解释科技股的估值。

未来当然重要，但投资者真正买入的，是企业未来能够创造的经济价值，而不是未来这个词本身。

对普通人来说，这里有一个很实用的提醒：

不要只看一家公司在 AI 上投入了多少钱，还要看它有没有能力把这些投入变成可持续的现金流。

三、为什么 Ackman 敢于集中投资，普通人却不能简单照抄？

Ackman 还有一个很有争议的观点：当你真正了解一家公司时，集中投资可能比不断增加持仓数量更有吸引力。

他强调的是研究深度，以及在价格具有吸引力时敢于采取行动。

但这里有一个前提，经常被忽略。

集中投资的前提，不是你对一家公司有信心，而是你对它的业务、估值、竞争环境和潜在风险有足够深入的理解，并且有能力承受判断错误的后果。

即使如此，判断也可能出错。

而且，专业投资机构和普通家庭的资金条件并不一样。机构可能有专业研究团队、不同的投资工具和长期资金安排；普通人却可能随时需要资金支付房贷、子女教育或日常生活开支。

因此，我不认为普通投资者应该因为 Ackman 敢于集中投资，就跟着把大部分资金压在几只科技股上。

对没有时间深入研究个股的人来说，低成本、广泛分散的指数基金，可以是一种值得研究的长期投资方式。例如，追踪标普 500 指数的 SPY。

但指数基金也不是稳赚不赔。它仍然会受到股票市场波动影响，而且标普 500 本身也有大型科技公司的集中度问题。是否适合自己，还要看投资期限、风险承受能力、费用和资金用途。

我认为这件事最值得记住的，不是"懂得越多，就应该买得越集中"，而是：

你承担的风险，应该和你真正理解的东西、能够承受的损失相匹配。

如果你还没有能力判断一家公司值多少钱，就不要因为某位投资大师买了它，便把自己的资金管理交给别人的判断。

四、市场波动是机会，还是陷阱？关键在于你用的是什么钱

Ackman 很重视长期资金的价值。

他提到的 permanent capital，也就是能够长期留在投资体系中、不需要因为短期赎回压力而被迫卖出的资本。

这很重要。

假设两个人都买入同一家优质企业。

第一个人使用的是五年内都不需要动用的资金。股价下跌时，他可以重新研究公司的经营状况，再决定是否持有或加仓。

第二个人使用的是借来的钱，或者几个月后就需要拿来支付生活开支的钱。

当股价下跌时，即使两个人买的是同一家公司，他们能够采取的行动也完全不同。

第二个人可能因为保证金要求、现金需求或心理压力，被迫在不理想的价格卖出。

所以，波动本身既不是朋友，也不是敌人。它会放大投资者原本就存在的问题。

如果你没有借钱投资，持有期限足够长，而且企业的长期价值没有发生根本变化，市场下跌有时会提供重新评估投资机会的空间。

但如果企业的商业模式已经恶化，股价下跌可能不是机会，而是市场在重新认识风险。

这两种情况，表面上都是股价下跌，背后的原因却完全不同。

我觉得普通投资者最应该学习的，是先区分价格波动和企业价值的变化，而不是看到股价下跌就急着抄底。

五、AI 时代，真正值得研究的是"卖铲子"的逻辑吗？

很多人喜欢用淘金热来解释 AI 投资。

淘金的人不一定能找到黄金，但提供工具的人，可能从整个行业的发展中获得收入。

这个比喻有参考价值，但不能理解得太简单。

微软拥有企业软件和云计算业务；亚马逊拥有 AWS 云服务，也经营庞大的电商业务；Meta 则主要依靠广告业务，同时投入大量资金发展 AI 和其他技术。

它们的商业模式并不相同。

如果 AI 的使用持续增加，这些企业可能从云服务、软件产品、广告效率和新产品中获得更多收入。但每家公司的受益路径、竞争环境和资本开支风险，都需要分别分析。

更重要的是，即使一家公司是 AI 时代的基础设施提供者，也不意味着它的股票一定便宜。

如果市场已经把未来十年的增长充分计入股价，那么一家非常优秀的公司，仍然可能是一笔回报平平的投资。

这让我想到巴菲特经常强调的一个基本问题：好生意和好价格，是两件不同的事。

对普通投资者而言，与其急着猜哪家 AI 初创公司最终胜出，不如先研究自己能够理解的企业：

它有没有现成的客户？有没有稳定的收入来源？有没有竞争优势？未来的投入是否合理？现在的股价，是否已经反映了过高的增长预期？

这些问题没有一个能保证你赚钱，但它们能帮助你少一些盲目追逐故事的冲动。

六、Ackman 的房地产布局，也有值得观察的地方

这次投资观察还有一个有意思的延伸：Ackman 正在推动 Howard Hughes Holdings 从传统房地产开发业务，向更加多元化的控股公司模式转型。

2026 年 6 月，Howard Hughes 完成了对专业保险及再保险企业 Vantage Group 的约 21 亿美元收购。这笔交易为公司增加了保险业务，也让它有机会把房地产、保险和长期投资结合起来。

这件事值得关注，但不能简单理解成"房地产公司买了保险公司，所以一定更值钱"。

保险业务可以带来保费收入和投资资金，但同时也需要承担保险赔付、承保风险、监管要求和资产负债管理等责任。

它能否创造长期价值，要看保险业务本身能不能持续盈利，以及管理层是否能够合理配置资本。

从投资角度看，我觉得这项布局更有意思的地方在于：Ackman 不只是寻找一套房产或者一家公司的短期升值机会，而是在尝试建立一个能够持有和配置长期资本的商业平台。

不过，这种模式结构更复杂，也需要更深入的研究，不能因为管理者有名气，就忽略业务本身的风险。

最后：可以学习大师的思考，但不要复制大师的仓位

回到最开始的问题：AI 可能带来巨大的变化，为什么 Ackman 仍然看好大型科技公司？

因为他的判断不只是建立在 AI 会不会成功上，还包括他对企业竞争优势、未来现金流、资本投入和当前估值的综合分析。

他的判断可能是对的，也可能出现偏差。20% 以上的预期回报，不代表未来一定能够实现。

我认为普通投资者可以从这次采访中带走三件事：

第一，不要只看热门故事，要研究企业究竟怎样赚钱。

第二，不要把股价下跌自动理解成便宜，也不要把股价上涨自动理解成价值增加。

第三，投资策略必须和自己的资金期限、风险承受能力及研究能力相匹配。

我自己一直对长期投资和企业价值很感兴趣，也喜欢研究巴菲特、芒格、德鲁肯米勒和 Ackman 这些投资者的思考方式。

但研究他们，不是为了找到一个可以直接照抄的股票名单，而是想弄明白：他们在什么条件下做决定，为什么愿意承担某种风险，又是怎样判断自己可能犯错的。

投资大师值得研究的，不只是他们买了什么，更是他们为什么买、付出了什么代价，以及他们的判断需要满足哪些条件才能成立。

这比单纯追着下一只热门股票跑，可能更有长期价值。

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Everyone's asking: will AI disrupt everything? Should we run from tech stocks?

Bill Ackman runs Pershing Square — about $33 billion. In a recent interview he gave a counterintuitive answer: AI is like the nuclear arms race — and precisely because of that, his biggest bets are Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta. At today's prices, he says, they can deliver over 20% annualized returns long term.

That logic is worth unpacking.

1. AI is a nuclear arms race — but he's more afraid of someone else getting there first

Ackman's words were blunt: building AI is like building the bomb. The upside is enormous, and the extinction-level risk is real. The scarier part: back then we at least understood physics. Now we don't even understand how the human brain works, and models are already heading toward superhuman intelligence.

He gave two examples that chilled him: on Hugging Face, a group of AIs collaborated to complete a goal and broke the law hacking into other websites along the way; and people leaving Anthropic and OpenAI, noisily.

But his conclusion isn't "slow down." It's: I'm more afraid of China and Russia getting there first. So America has to stay ahead. Regulation is fine, but it can't tie up competitiveness.

2. Defending big tech's spending spree: that's not burning money, it's demand too big to wait

A lot of people worry: Microsoft, Amazon, Meta building data centers like crazy — isn't that weakening their balance sheets?

Ackman pushes back directly: that proves demand is so large they can't wait — they're investing ahead of the order book. As long as the money earns high returns, that's growth capex, not waste. When the market panics over capex and dumps the stock, that panic creates the buying opportunity.

His stock-picking standard is still Buffett's: find the kind of company where, if the stock market closed for ten years, it would come out not just alive but stronger. High quality, a moat, long-term growth.

3. The more you understand, the more concentrated — volatility is long-term capital's ATM

This is Ackman's most controversial and most interesting part:

Diversification is for people who don't understand. The more you understand a company, the more concentrated you should be. After about 15 names, the marginal benefit of more diversification is basically zero — "it's hard to beat the market by becoming the market."

Volatility is a friend. Indexing shrinks the float. Short-term quants like Citadel, Millennium, and Jane Street create huge swings — that is exactly the opportunity for his kind of permanent capital to pick up bargains. When you don't worry about your ranking on December 31st, you can buy calmly on a five-year IRR.

He also revealed how he's changed: early on it was "buy a dollar for 50 cents and wait for a catalyst"; now it's "buy a dollar for 70 cents, but that dollar grows into a dollar sixty on its own" — buy great companies, hold long term. He hasn't done activist investing in ten years; now CEOs write him thank-you notes.

Two other interesting moves: he's copying Buffett, turning Howard Hughes (a real estate company) into an insurance-plus-investment platform; and Pershing Square Holdings itself still trades at a 33% discount — he calls that a "double discount."

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Tony 的观察：高利率下，卖房不只是比谁降价多

最近，我一直在想一个问题。

如果你在纽约有一套房子，本来打算今年卖掉，结果房贷利率又涨上去了，你会怎么做？

是先等等，等利率下降、买家回来再卖？还是趁现在挂牌，看看市场愿意出多少钱？

我发现，很多屋主容易把这件事想成一道选择题：利率高，房子不好卖；利率低，房子就好卖。

但真实的市场，往往没有这么简单。

根据 Freddie Mac 在 2026 年 10 月 8 日公布的数据，美国 30 年固定房贷平均利率已经达到 7.40%，一年前是 6.30%。与此同时，MBA 的数据显示，截至 10 月 2 日当周，购房贷款申请指数同比下降了 15%。这反映出高利率正在给买家的购买能力带来压力。

不过，这些是全美数据，并不代表纽约每个社区的房价和需求都在以同样的速度变化。

我更关心的是：当买家的预算受到限制时，什么样的房子还能让他们愿意出手？

对准备卖房的人来说，这可能比单纯猜测利率什么时候下降，更值得研究。

本地市场快照：高利率下，咱们这几个区真实成交怎么样？

光讲全美数据不够。我查了 10 月初的本地数据，看看 Bayside、Whitestone、Flushing、Great Neck、Manhasset 真实发生了什么：

• Manhasset：过去 30 天成交 7 套，平均 25 天卖掉，成交价平均比挂牌价还高 1%。高端市场，需求还在。
• Great Neck：过去 30 天成交 14 套，平均 37–41 天卖掉，成交价约为挂牌价的 90–96%。
• Flushing：在售 1,035 套，过去 3 个月成交 262 套，中位 46 天卖掉。但过去 30 天，15% 的独栋、13% 的 condo 降过价——已经有卖家在让步。
• Bayside：过去 30 天成交 38 套。独栋平均 43 天进入 pending，15% 降过价；condo 平均 73 天，13% 降过价。
• Whitestone：过去 3 个月成交 76 套，中位 49 天卖掉，库存约 4.4 个月。

看出来了吗？7.4% 并没有让市场停摆。Manhasset 25 天还能加价卖；但 Flushing、Bayside 这边，已经有 13–15% 的卖家在降价。这正是这篇文章想说的：不是利率高就卖不掉，而是你的定价和策略，要跟上买家被压缩的预算。

（本地数据来源：Redfin 2026 年 10 月初页面数据、2026 年 8 月邮编级市场数据；Agent Pronto 2026 年 6–8 月滚动数据。市场数据实时变化，仅供参考。）

一、利率上涨 1.1%，买家每个月要多付多少钱？

我们先不谈复杂的市场理论，直接算一笔账。

假设买家贷款 80 万美元，采用 30 年固定利率贷款，只计算本金和利息。

• 如果利率是 6.30%，每月月供约为 4,955 美元。
• 如果利率是 7.40%，每月月供约为 5,539 美元。

两者相差约 587 美元。一年下来，就是约 7,047 美元。

注意，这还没有包括地税、房屋保险，以及可能存在的 HOA 或其他物业费用。

这意味着，同样一套房子，即使售价没有变化，买家每个月需要承担的成本也可能明显增加。

尤其是在纽约，地税本身就可能占据相当大的一部分住房开支。对某些买家来说，真正让他们犹豫的，不一定是房子贵了几万美元，而是每个月的总支出已经超过自己的预算。

所以我认为，高利率市场下，屋主需要重新理解买家的购买能力。

过去附近一套类似的房子卖了多少钱，当然重要。但如果现在的买家需要承担更高的贷款成本，卖家也不能只看过去的成交价，就认定自己的房子应该卖到同样的价格。

过去的成交价是参考，今天买家的购买能力，才是决定交易能不能谈下去的重要因素之一。

二、与其一味降价，不妨先算算：能不能帮买家降低前两年的月供？

这里有一个值得了解的工具，叫作 2-1 buydown，也就是临时房贷利率补贴。

简单来说，在符合贷款条件的交易中，卖家可以拿出一笔钱，帮助买家降低前两年的月供。补贴结束后，月供恢复到贷款合同约定的水平。

我们继续用刚才的 80 万美元贷款举例。假设合同利率是 7.40%，贷款期限为 30 年：

• 第一年按 5.40% 对应的月供计算，约为 4,490 美元。
• 第二年按 6.40% 对应的月供计算，约为 5,005 美元。
• 第三年开始，恢复到 7.40% 对应的月供，约为 5,539 美元。

按照这个例子，第一年每个月可以少付约 1,047 美元，第二年每个月少付约 535 美元。

两年合计的补贴金额大约为 19,000 美元。实际金额要由贷款机构根据具体贷款条款计算和确认。

这里有个细节一定要说清楚：这种安排通常不会改变贷款合同本身的 7.40% 利率。买家仍需要符合贷款资格审核要求，也必须提前了解补贴结束后的月供。

那么，为什么我认为卖家值得研究这个办法？我们换一个角度看。

假设卖家直接降价 19,000 美元，而买家首付 20%，那么贷款金额只减少 15,200 美元。在其他条件不变的情况下，每月本金和利息大约减少 105 美元。

而通过 2-1 buydown，买家前两年的月供下降幅度可能明显更大。

但这并不代表补贴一定比降价好。降价会降低房屋成交价格和买家的贷款金额；临时补贴则主要改善前两年的现金流。两者解决的是不同的问题。

如果买家最在意的是眼下每个月的支出，补贴可能更有吸引力；如果买家更在意长期负担、贷款金额或房屋估值，直接降价也许更合适。

另外，卖家让利还需要符合具体贷款项目的规定，不能想补贴多少就补贴多少。

所以，如果你准备卖房，我觉得可以先做一件很实际的事：让贷款经纪分别计算直接降价和临时利率补贴的效果，再比较哪种方式更适合你的房子和目标买家。

有时候，真正值得研究的不是哪一种方法听起来更厉害，而是同一笔钱，怎样使用才能更有效地帮助交易达成。

三、在纽约卖房，我会特别注意这三件事

1. 不要只看挂牌价，要看附近的真实成交

如果你在 Bayside、Whitestone、Flushing 或长岛拥有一套房子，我会先看最近成交的同类房源，再看现在有哪些房子正在竞争。

挂牌价是卖家的期望，不等于最终成交价。

同一个社区里的房子，即使外观看起来相似，也可能因为地块、房屋状况、地下室、地税、停车条件和维护成本不同，而出现明显的价格差异。

如果同类房源已经开始降价，或者挂牌时间越来越长，就值得认真分析：买家究竟在比较什么？是售价超出了预算，还是房屋本身没有提供足够的价值？

我不认为每套房子都应该因为利率上涨而降价。

但如果市场已经用实际成交和买家的反馈告诉你，原来的价格很难获得回应，那么继续坚持一个缺乏市场依据的价格，也未必能保护你的利益。

2. 上市前，把房屋状况和维修记录整理好

高利率会让一些买家更加谨慎。因为他们不仅要承担贷款，还要考虑买房之后是否需要继续投入资金。

例如，屋顶是否需要更换，供暖设备是否老旧，热水器有没有问题，地下室有没有渗水迹象，这些事情都可能影响买家的判断。

不过，我不建议屋主为了卖房，就把所有东西都翻新一遍。

更合理的做法，是先检查那些可能影响房屋安全、正常使用和买家信心的问题，再根据实际情况决定维修还是如实披露。

有些问题提前处理，可以减少交易过程中的意外；有些问题如果维修成本太高，则需要计算维修费用与可能的成交影响，再决定怎么做。

重点不是花最多的钱把房子装修得最漂亮，而是把钱花在真正有价值的地方。

3. 不要把卖房计划全部押在降息上

很多屋主会问：要不要等利率下降再卖？我觉得，这个问题不能只看利率。

如果未来利率下降，买家的购买能力可能得到改善；但与此同时，也可能有更多屋主重新考虑挂牌。最终房价和成交速度如何变化，还要看当地的需求、房源供应和经济状况。

反过来，如果你现在有明确的换房、退休、搬迁或资金安排需求，单纯为了等待利率变化而推迟卖房，也可能带来额外的持有成本。

所以，我更倾向于把问题换成这样：

如果按照今天的市场条件出售，我的房子大概能卖多少钱？扣除贷款余额、交易费用和其他成本之后，我实际能留下多少钱？如果继续持有半年或一年，我又需要承担什么成本？

这些问题算清楚之后，再决定现在卖还是继续持有，会更有依据。

四、真正重要的，不是利率高不高，而是你的房子有没有找到合适的买家

说到底，7.40% 的房贷利率不会让所有房子都卖不掉，也不会让所有房子都必须降价。

它改变的是买家的预算、选择，以及他们对交易条件的敏感程度。

有些房子依然有需求，因为位置、房屋条件和价格具有竞争力；有些房子即使挂牌很久，也未必是因为利率，而可能是定价、房屋状况或市场定位出了问题。

对卖家来说，我认为最值得做的，是先弄清楚三个问题：

第一，附近同类房源最近真正卖了多少钱？

第二，按照目前的利率、地税和其他持有成本，目标买家每个月需要承担多少费用？

第三，如果买家对价格或月供有顾虑，直接降价、提供合理补贴，还是先处理房屋问题，哪一种更有利于最终成交？

这三件事想清楚了，才有条件制定适合自己的卖房策略。

我是 Tony Huang，一名纽约地产经纪人。

我一直觉得，卖房不是简单地把房子放到市场上，再等着别人出价。更重要的是理解买家为什么愿意买、为什么犹豫，以及在什么条件下，双方更有可能达成交易。

市场会变化，利率也会变化。但在做决定之前，先把自己的账算清楚，通常比猜测下一次市场转折更有意义。

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Tony's Take: In a high-rate market, selling isn't just about who cuts most

If you own a home in New York and planned to sell this year, then watched mortgage rates climb again — what would you do? Wait for rates to fall, or list now and see what the market pays?

Many homeowners frame it as multiple choice: high rates, hard to sell; low rates, easy to sell. The real market is rarely that simple.

Freddie Mac's October 8 data: the U.S. 30-year fixed averaged 7.40%, vs 6.30% a year ago. MBA purchase applications fell 15% year over year. High rates are pressuring buyer purchasing power.

But those are national numbers. They don't mean every New York neighborhood moves at the same speed.

Local snapshot: what's actually closing at high rates?

• Manhasset: 7 closed in 30 days, avg 25 days, at 101% of asking. High-end demand is alive.
• Great Neck: 14 closed in 30 days, avg 37–41 days, at ~90–96% of asking.
• Flushing: 1,035 active, 262 closed in 3 months, median 46 days. But 15% of houses and 13% of condos cut prices in 30 days.
• Bayside: 38 closed in 30 days. Houses avg 43 days to pending (15% cut); condos avg 73 days (13% cut).
• Whitestone: 76 closed in 3 months, median 49 days, ~4.4 months inventory.

7.4% didn't freeze the market. Manhasset sells above asking in 25 days; meanwhile 13–15% of Flushing/Bayside sellers are cutting. It's not that high rates make homes unsellable — it's that pricing and strategy must keep up with squeezed buyer budgets.

1. Rates up 1.1% — how much more per month?

On an $800K loan, 30-year fixed: ~$4,955/mo at 6.30% vs ~$5,539/mo at 7.40%. That's ~$587 more per month, ~$7,047 a year — before taxes and insurance.

In New York, where property tax alone is a big chunk, what stops buyers often isn't tens of thousands on price — it's monthly outlay exceeding budget.

2. Instead of just cutting, consider a 2-1 buydown

A temporary rate subsidy: the seller funds lower payments for two years — ~$4,490/mo in year one (vs $5,539), ~$5,005 in year two. Total subsidy roughly $19,000 (lender to confirm).

Compare: a straight $19,000 price cut with 20% down shrinks the loan by only $15,200 — about $105/mo less. The buydown cuts far more from early payments.

But neither always wins. Price cuts lower the sale price and loan amount; subsidies improve early cash flow. Have your loan officer price both and compare for your home and buyer.

3. Three things I'd watch selling in New York

1. Look at real closings, not asking prices. Asking is hope; closings are facts. If comps are cutting or sitting, ask what buyers are really comparing.

2. Get condition and repair records organized before listing. Roof, heat, water heater, basement — fix what affects safety and confidence; disclose the rest honestly. Spend where it counts.

3. Don't bet everything on rate cuts. If rates fall, more sellers may relist too. Ask instead: at today's conditions, what nets to me? What does holding cost?

4. What matters isn't the rate — it's whether your home found its buyer

Three questions first: 1. What did nearby comps actually close for? 2. What must your target buyer carry monthly at today's rates and taxes? 3. If buyers hesitate — straight cut, subsidy, or fix-up first?

Get those clear, and you can build a strategy that fits.

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真正值得学习的，不只是买什么资产，而是怎样让现金流、资产和投资形成一个长期循环。

最近，我在研究 Bill Ackman 的一笔收购。

2026 年 6 月 4 日，Howard Hughes Holdings 完成了对 Vantage Group Holdings 的收购，交易规模约 21 亿美元。这家原本以房地产为核心的公司，希望借此转型为多元化控股公司。与此同时，Pershing Square 将参与管理 Vantage 的投资资产。

这让我想到一个人：沃伦·巴菲特。

为什么 Ackman 要把保险业务和投资能力结合起来？他是不是也在尝试建立一种类似伯克希尔·哈撒韦的长期资本运作模式？

我认为，两者确实有值得比较的地方，但 Ackman 能不能走通这条路，还需要时间验证。

而这件事让我想到一个更贴近普通人的问题：

如果我们没有他们那么多的钱，也没有那么专业的团队，有没有什么东西，是我们今天就可以开始学习的？

我觉得有，而且非常值得思考。

一、先有持续的现金流，才有机会积累资本

很多人谈投资，第一件事就是问：现在应该买什么股票？买房地产好，还是买指数基金好？

但我觉得，在讨论买什么之前，还有一个更基础的问题：我们的投资资金从哪里来？

对于巴菲特来说，保险业务是伯克希尔长期资本体系的重要组成部分。

保险公司先收取保费，再承担未来的赔付责任。在赔付发生之前，部分资金可以由保险公司持有和投资，这就是通常所说的保险浮存金。

根据伯克希尔 2025 年年报，截至 2025 年底，其保险浮存金约为 1,760 亿美元。

当然，这些钱不是免费的钱。保险公司必须承担赔付责任，也必须控制承保风险。只有把保险业务经营好，浮存金才可能成为有价值的长期资本来源。

Ackman 收购 Vantage，让我看到的也是一种类似的思考方向：把保险业务与投资能力结合起来，让公司不只依靠原有的房地产开发业务。

但这里真正值得普通人学习的，并不是去做保险，而是理解一个简单的道理：

如果没有持续的现金流，投资就很难长期进行；如果能够持续积累资本，才有机会逐步扩大自己的资产基础。

对于普通家庭，这个现金流可以来自工资、经营收入、专业技能，或者自己长期建立起来的事业。

我们不必一开始就有很多钱。更重要的是，收入扣除必要生活开支之后，能不能逐渐留下一部分，成为未来的资本。

二、让赚来的钱，逐渐变成能够创造价值的资产

我觉得，很多人努力工作一辈子，却很少认真思考一件事：自己积累下来的钱，除了存着和消费，还能发挥什么作用？

举个简单的例子。

一个家庭每个月都有收入，支付房贷、日常开支、孩子教育和其他必要费用以后，还能留下一部分钱。

这笔钱可以根据家庭的实际情况，用来建立应急储备、偿还高成本债务、投资自己的技能，或者逐步投入长期资产。

有人选择退休账户，有人选择宽基指数基金，有人经营自己的生意，也有人研究出租物业。

这些选择各不相同，风险也不一样。

但它们有一个共同点：我们开始尝试把过去积累的资源，转化成能够帮助未来创造价值的东西。

这并不意味着所有资产都会升值，也不意味着投资一定比消费重要。

而是说，在满足生活需要之后，我们可以有意识地为未来留下一部分资本，而不是让所有收入都随着每个月的生活开支消耗掉。

三、真正值得建立的，是一个能够持续运转的循环

我喜欢把这个逻辑理解成一个循环：

持续创造收入 → 留下可投资的资金 → 积累有价值的资产 → 获得收入或长期增值 → 再投入下一轮。

对于企业来说，现金流可能来自产品销售、服务收入或保险业务；资本积累起来以后，可以用来改善经营、投资新业务，或者购买其他有价值的资产。

对于普通人来说，这个循环可以小得多。

比如，一个人通过工作积累资金，投资于自己的专业能力，提高未来收入；再把一部分新增收入用于长期投资。随着时间过去，他可能逐渐拥有更多资产，也有更多选择。

如果经营的是一家小生意，也可以思考怎样让收入更加稳定，怎样改善流程，怎样培养员工，让生意不完全依赖老板每天亲自投入多少时间。

这就是我认为最有价值的地方。

财富积累不一定从一笔惊人的投资开始，也可能从一项更稳定的收入、一笔长期坚持的储蓄，或者一次改善经营效率的决定开始。

当然，循环也可能中断。业务亏损、投资买贵了、负债过高，都可能让资本不断缩水。

所以，关键不是让资金不停流动，而是让每一次资金配置都有合理的理由，并且能够承受可能发生的损失。

四、为什么大型投资机构比普通人更有优势？

这一点，我觉得也必须客观看待。

像 Ackman 这样的投资人，拥有普通人很难复制的条件。

他们可以聘请专业分析师，研究一家公司的财务报表、竞争优势、管理层、行业趋势和未来现金流；也可以投入大量时间研究不同资产之间的关系，并通过正式渠道与企业管理层交流。

他们拥有更多资金，也有能力承担一些普通家庭无法承受的长期波动。

这些优势是真实存在的。

所以，我不认为普通人看到某个投资大佬买入一家公司的股票，就应该马上跟着买。

我们真正应该学习的，是他们研究投资的方式。

一家公司的钱从哪里赚来？利润能不能转化成现金流？竞争优势能维持多久？负债是否合理？管理层会不会有效配置资本？现在的价格，是否已经反映了过于乐观的预期？

即使我们没有专业团队，也可以学着提出这些问题。

当然，专业投资人也会判断错误。再出色的分析师，也不能保证每一次投资都成功。

普通人最值得学习的，不是他们每次买了什么，而是他们怎样判断一项资产值不值得买，以及什么时候应该放弃。

五、先保护自己的现金流，再谈让资产增长

研究大型机构的资本模式，很容易只看到资产增长的好处，却忽略了背后的风险。

对于普通家庭来说，稳定收入、应急储备、合理负债和必要的保险保障，往往比追求更高的投资回报更加基础。

如果一笔投资需要动用全部家庭储蓄，或者必须借钱才能完成，那么即使它看起来很有吸引力，也值得重新考虑。

因为普通人最重要的资本，不只是银行账户里的钱，还包括自己的工作能力、健康、家庭稳定，以及未来继续创造收入的能力。

我们没有必要为了追求资产增长，让自己失去应对意外的空间。

能够长期留在市场里，本身就是一种优势。

最后，我从这件事里得到的启发

研究 Ackman 收购保险公司，让我更加关注一个问题：

为什么有些企业能够把经营产生的现金流，持续转化成新的资产和业务？而有些人虽然收入不低，却很难逐渐积累财富？

我认为，差别不仅在于赚多少钱，还在于怎样管理现金流、怎样配置资本，以及能不能长期坚持合理的决策。

巴菲特用几十年建立了伯克希尔的体系。Ackman 正在尝试让 Howard Hughes Holdings 成为一家拥有房地产与保险两大业务平台的多元化控股公司，但这个新模式最终能否创造长期价值，还需要看未来的经营结果。

我们普通人当然不可能照搬他们的资金规模和经营模式。

但我们可以从自己的生活开始：努力提高收入，控制不必要的支出，积累适合自己的资产，学习判断投资风险，并且给长期积累留出足够的时间。

我一直觉得，投资最值得追求的，不只是某一年赚了多少钱。

而是经过十年、二十年以后，我们有没有积累更多资产，有没有更稳定的现金流，以及有没有更多选择自己想要的生活的能力。

钱可以用来消费，也可以用来积累资本；而资本真正的价值，是让我们未来拥有更多选择。

这就是我从 Ackman、巴菲特以及他们背后的资本运作逻辑中，得到的一个启发。

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What's truly worth learning isn't just what assets to buy. It's how to make cash flow, assets, and investing form a long-term cycle.

On June 4, 2026, Howard Hughes Holdings completed its ~$2.1B acquisition of Vantage Group Holdings — a real-estate company trying to become a diversified holding company, with Pershing Square helping manage Vantage's investments.

It made me think of Warren Buffett. Is Ackman trying to build a Berkshire-like long-term capital machine? The comparison is worth making — but whether he pulls it off needs time to prove.

1. Sustained cash flow first — only then can capital accumulate

For Buffett, insurance is core to Berkshire's capital system. Premiums arrive before claims are paid; the money in between — float — can be invested. Berkshire's float was about $176 billion at end-2025.

That money isn't free — insurers must pay claims and control underwriting risk. But the lesson for ordinary people isn't "go into insurance." It's simpler: without sustained cash flow, investing can't go long term. For a household, that cash flow is salary, business income, or professional skills — whatever's left after necessary spending becomes future capital.

2. Turn earned money into assets that create value

After life's needs are met, consciously set aside capital for the future instead of letting all income evaporate with monthly spending — emergency reserves, high-cost debt payoff, skills, retirement accounts, index funds, a business, rentals. Different risks, same idea: turning past resources into future value.

3. Build a cycle that keeps running

Earn income → set aside investable funds → accumulate valuable assets → earn income or appreciation → reinvest.

Wealth doesn't have to start with one stunning investment. It can start with steadier income, persistent saving, or one efficiency decision. But cycles can break — losses, overpaying, too much debt. Every allocation needs a sound reason and bearable downside.

4. Why institutions have real advantages

Ackman has analysts, access, capital, and staying power ordinary people don't. So don't rush to buy just because a famous investor did. Learn how they research: where does the money come from? Does profit become cash flow? How durable is the edge? Is debt reasonable? Does management allocate well? Is optimism already priced in?

5. Protect cash flow first, then grow assets

For households, stable income, emergency reserves, reasonable debt, and necessary insurance usually matter more than chasing returns. If an investment needs all your savings or borrowed money, reconsider — however attractive it looks.

The takeaway

The difference isn't just how much you earn — it's how you manage cash flow, allocate capital, and stick with sound decisions. Start where you are: raise income, control spending, accumulate fitting assets, learn risk judgment, and give compounding time. Capital's true value is giving you more choices in the future.

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在纽约买房，很多人一开始最关心的是三个问题：房子有多大、装修怎么样、价格合不合理。

但真正住进去以后，你会发现，影响日常生活的，往往还有另外几件事：孩子上学是否方便，周末有没有地方散步和运动，平时买菜吃饭是否方便，上班通勤要花多少时间，以及每年需要承担多少持有成本。

今天，我们就来聊聊纽约及长岛北岸八个经常被买家拿来比较的区域：

Bayside、Whitestone、Flushing、Fresh Meadows、Little Neck、Great Neck、Roslyn 和 Sands Point。

先说明一点：这不是八个区域的排名，也不是简单地评选哪个地方最好。它们的地理位置、生活方式、房屋类型和社区特点各不相同，适合的家庭也不一样。

另外，学校方面有一个很重要的原则：社区名称不等于具体学校的入学资格。尤其是在纽约，买房前一定要核实具体地址对应的学区、学校分区或招生条件，不能只凭房源广告上的一句"好学区"就做决定。

一、Bayside：学校、住宅环境与日常便利性的平衡

Bayside 是皇后区东北部很多买家会考虑的区域之一。

这里既有独立屋和其他住宅类型，也有商业街、餐厅、公共交通和公园。对于希望在纽约市内生活，同时又比较重视住宅环境的家庭来说，Bayside 值得实地了解。

学校方面

可以了解的学校包括 P.S. 159、P.S. 31、P.S. 205、J.H.S. 74 Nathaniel Hawthorne、M.S. 158 Marie Curie，以及 Bayside High School 等。

但这里要注意：这些学校并不是 Bayside 所有地址都能直接就读的学校。不同街道可能对应不同的学校分区，部分学校还有各自的招生安排。

因此，真正准备买房时，应该先查具体地址，再核实孩子所在年级的入学资格。

公园与户外生活

Crocheron Park 是当地值得了解的公园之一，有步道、运动和游乐空间，也能欣赏 Little Neck Bay 一带的景色。

Fort Totten Park 则有历史建筑、自然空间和步行路线，适合喜欢户外活动、周末想带家人出去走走的人。

从买房角度看

Bayside 的特点，是可以把住宅生活、日常便利性和户外活动放在一起考虑。

但同样叫 Bayside，不同街道的交通、房屋状况、地税、噪音和房价都可能有差别。

我会建议买家不要只看社区的整体印象，而是把目标房屋附近的街道走一遍。工作日和周末各去一次，看看停车是否方便、周围是否安静、日常购物要走多远。

有时候，真正影响居住体验的，就是这些看起来不太起眼的细节。

二、Whitestone：住宅氛围与海湾周边的户外空间

Whitestone 位于皇后区东北部，靠近 East River 和 Little Neck Bay 一带。与商业活动比较集中的区域相比，这里的部分街区更偏向住宅生活。

不过，Whitestone 内部也有差异，不能简单地认为整个区域都是同一种房屋类型或生活环境。

学校方面

Whitestone 的公立学校主要涉及纽约市第 25 学区范围内的学校。买家可以进一步了解 P.S. 79、P.S. 209、P.S. 193、P.S. 184 等学校，但必须按具体地址确认分区和入学资格。

我不建议只根据网上某一个学校评分，就直接判断整个区域的教育水平。

不同平台的评分标准可能不同，有的侧重家长评价，有的侧重考试数据，还有的会纳入其他指标。看学校时，最好结合官方学校资料、课程设置、孩子的实际需求，以及家庭能够接受的通勤距离。

公园与户外生活

Francis Lewis Park 和 Little Bay Park 是值得了解的户外空间。

如果你喜欢在海湾附近散步、看水景，或者希望周末有地方活动，可以把这两个公园加入看房路线。

从买房角度看

Whitestone 值得关注的，不只是住宅环境，也包括它与主要道路、购物地点和工作地点之间的距离。

如果你每天都需要开车上班，或者家里有老人和孩子，最好在真实的通勤时段试走一次路线。

买房不是只买一栋房子，而是决定未来很多年每天要怎么出门、怎么回家。

三、Flushing：商业、交通与公共设施比较集中

Flushing 和前面两个区域的生活节奏不太一样。

这里有大量餐厅、超市、商业设施和公共交通。对于喜欢中餐、希望购物方便，或者工作和生活需要频繁使用公共交通的人来说，Flushing 有很强的吸引力。

但 Flushing 的范围也很大。商业中心附近、传统住宅街道和更外围的住宅社区，居住体验可能完全不同。

学校方面

Flushing 涉及的学校和学区需要按具体地址核实，不能仅凭社区名称判断。

这里还要特别提到 Townsend Harris High School。

这所学校有自己的招生要求，并不是买了 Flushing 的房子，就能自动进入 Townsend Harris。如果家庭特别关注这所学校，应该直接查看纽约市公立学校的招生信息和当年的申请要求。

公园与户外生活

Flushing Meadows–Corona Park 是纽约市非常有代表性的公园之一。这里有大型开放空间、体育设施，以及 Queens Museum 等文化设施。

Kissena Park 则有湖泊、步行空间和运动设施，适合希望在城市生活中增加户外活动的人。

从买房角度看

Flushing 的优势是商业和交通资源集中，但这并不代表每一条街都方便，也不代表所有住宅都适合每个家庭。

看房时，建议特别留意三个问题：

第一，距离地铁、公交和日常购物地点到底有多远。

第二，住宅附近的交通、停车和噪音情况如何。

第三，房屋本身的条件是否合理，包括维修需求、地税、物业费用，以及周边同类房屋的成交价格。

有些买家更喜欢走出家门就有餐厅和商店的生活；另一些人则希望回家以后安静一点。Flushing 内部不同街区之间的差异，值得认真比较。

四、Fresh Meadows：把住宅生活与日常出行放在一起考虑

Fresh Meadows 位于皇后区中东部，是不少家庭会纳入看房范围的区域。

这里有不同类型的住宅，也有购物设施、公园和主要道路。对于考虑皇后区东北部住宅的买家来说，可以把 Fresh Meadows 与 Bayside、Whitestone 一起比较，而不是只看其中一个地方。

学校方面

可以了解的学校包括 P.S. 173 等当地公立学校；部分地址也可能涉及不同的中学或高中分区。

例如，Francis Lewis High School 是很多家庭会关注的学校之一，但不能因为一套房子被描述为 Fresh Meadows，就认定孩子一定符合该校的入学条件。

具体学校要根据房屋地址、孩子年级和招生规则进行核实。

公园与户外生活

Cunningham Park 和 Kissena Park 是值得关注的户外空间。

Cunningham Park 有步行和运动空间，部分区域也适合骑行等户外活动。Kissena Park 则提供湖泊、绿地和多种运动设施。

如果家里有孩子，或者平时喜欢散步、跑步和户外活动，可以亲自去看看公园的设施是否符合自己的生活习惯。

从买房角度看

Fresh Meadows 不能简单地被概括为"比 Bayside 便宜"或"房子一定更大"。

房价和房屋面积受到房屋类型、房龄、地块、装修、地税和具体位置等多种因素影响。

比较时，最好选择相近的房屋类型和面积，再看近期成交价格，而不是拿一套装修很好的独立屋，去和另一片区域需要大修的房子直接比较。

对于买家来说，真正有用的问题是：在自己的预算之内，哪个具体地址能让家庭的居住需求、通勤安排和长期支出更平衡？

五、Little Neck：更重视自然环境与相对安静的生活

Little Neck 位于皇后区东北部，靠近 Nassau County。这里有住宅街道、自然空间，也有通往周边地区的交通路线。

对于喜欢户外环境、不希望生活完全围绕商业中心的人来说，Little Neck 值得纳入比较范围。

学校方面

可以进一步了解 P.S. 221 North Hills、J.H.S. 67 Louis Pasteur 和 Benjamin N. Cardozo High School 等学校。

但这些学校并不意味着 Little Neck 的所有房屋都对应相同的学校分区。买房前仍然需要核实具体地址和相应年级的入学资格。

公园与自然环境

Alley Pond Park 是皇后区重要的自然空间之一，有步行路线、林地和湿地等不同环境。

Udalls Cove Park Preserve 则更偏向自然保护和户外观察，适合喜欢散步、观鸟和亲近自然的人。

如果你买房时特别重视附近有没有绿地，不妨把公园距离和实际步行路线也放进考虑范围。

从买房角度看

Little Neck 的自然环境是一项值得关注的特点，但交通便利性仍然要根据具体位置来判断。

同一个社区，离火车站近不近、附近有没有日常购物设施、开车是否方便，都会影响生活体验。

我建议看房时，不要只在白天待十几分钟就下结论。最好在工作日早晚各观察一次，留意道路车流、停车情况和周边环境。

安静固然重要，但如果每天通勤都要多花很多时间，也需要把这部分成本算进去。

六、Great Neck：长岛学区与社区生活的另一种选择

Great Neck 位于 Nassau County，属于长岛，不是纽约市皇后区。不过，由于它距离皇后区东北部不远，经常会和 Bayside、Little Neck 等区域一起被买家比较。

这里有不同的住宅社区，也有自己的公立学校体系和公园设施。

学校方面

买家可以了解 Great Neck South High School、Great Neck North High School，以及 E.M. Baker、Lakeville 等学校。

不过，Great Neck 的学校分区和入学安排需要特别认真核实。不同住宅地址可能对应不同学校或不同的分区安排，不能只凭 Great Neck 这个地名来判断。

建议直接联系 Great Neck Public Schools 的注册部门，确认目标房屋地址对应的学校和入学条件。

公园与户外生活

Steppingstone Park 位于 Long Island Sound 沿岸，有水景、码头和相关户外活动设施。

Kings Point Park 也是可以进一步了解的户外空间。

这里有一个容易被忽略的细节：住在邮寄地址写着 Great Neck 的房子里，不代表一定属于 Great Neck Park District。

Great Neck Park District 官方列出的非辖区社区包括 Great Neck Estates、Harbor Hills、Lake Success、Saddle Rock 和 University Gardens。使用部分公园、泳池或参加相关活动，可能需要符合居住资格并持有 Park Card。

因此，如果你特别看重当地公园设施，买房前最好把公园使用资格也确认清楚。

从买房角度看

Great Neck 值得考虑的，不只是学校，还包括住宅环境、交通、社区服务和家庭生活方式。

但不要只因为听到一个学区名称，就忽略房屋本身的价格、地税和维护成本。

尤其是在比较纽约市和长岛的房产时，应该把总持有成本、通勤安排和实际生活需求放在一起考虑。不同地区的税费结构、房屋类型和日常出行方式可能并不相同。

七、Roslyn：历史小镇、学校资源与日常生活的结合

Roslyn 位于长岛北岸，是很多考虑 Nassau County 住宅的买家会进一步了解的地方。

这里有历史悠久的小镇街区、传统建筑，也有餐厅、商店和公共休闲空间。与单纯依赖开车去大型商业中心的生活方式相比，Roslyn 的部分区域有更明显的小镇商业氛围。

学校方面

可以重点了解 Roslyn Union Free School District，包括 Roslyn High School、Roslyn Middle School，以及区内的公立小学。

不过，需要分清楚三个概念：Roslyn 这个地名、具体房屋所在的行政范围，以及学校学区的边界。

它们不一定完全重合。因此，不能仅凭房源写着 Roslyn，就认定一定属于某一所学校的入学范围。买房前应该把具体地址交由学区确认。

公园与生活环境

Roslyn Village 的 Gerry Park 是当地值得了解的绿色空间。

此外，周边还有 Christopher Morley Park 等休闲设施。Roslyn 的一个特点，是历史街区与小镇商业区相结合。对于喜欢散步、吃饭、逛店的人来说，可以实地体验一下当地的生活节奏。

从买房角度看

Roslyn 值得关注的，不只是学校名气，而是学校资源、社区氛围和日常生活便利性之间的组合。

但不同街区的房屋类型、房龄、地税、交通和维护需求可能有很大差异。

如果你正在考虑 Roslyn，我建议不要只看房屋照片，也不要只看学校介绍。把目标房屋附近的街道、购物地点、交通路线和近期成交情况一起看，才更容易判断这套房子是否适合自己。

八、Sands Point：更看重空间、私密性与自然环境的生活方式

Sands Point 位于长岛北岸 Port Washington 半岛的末端，是一个以低密度住宅环境和自然空间著称的村庄。

它与 Roslyn 的生活氛围有所不同。Roslyn 的部分区域有小镇商业区和日常购物设施，而 Sands Point 更偏向安静、私密和以住宅为主的生活方式。

学校方面

Sands Point 居民的公立学校服务由 Port Washington School District 提供。

不过，买家仍然应该以具体房屋地址和学区的正式确认为准，而不是只根据邮寄地址或房源广告判断孩子的入学资格。

公园与自然环境

Sands Point Preserve 是当地值得了解的自然与历史景点。这里有林地、步行路线、开放草坪和历史建筑，适合喜欢自然环境和户外活动的人。

需要注意，Sands Point Preserve 有自己的开放时间和入场规定，部分历史建筑只在安排好的导览活动中开放。计划参观前，可以先查看官方信息。

从买房角度看

Sands Point 的吸引力更多来自环境、空间感和居住私密性，而不是步行就能到达很多商店的便利生活。

这里还有一个非常实际的房屋检查事项：根据 Sands Point 村政府的说明，当地没有公共下水道，住宅使用由业主维护的私人 cesspool 系统。

这意味着，买房时除了房屋装修和地块大小，还应该了解污水处理系统的状况、维护记录，以及相关检查和维修要求。

此外，住宅维护、园林管理、地税和通勤时间，也都应该纳入长期预算。

如果你更喜欢小镇生活和日常便利性，可以多比较 Roslyn；如果你更重视安静、空间和自然环境，Sands Point 也值得实地了解。

两种生活方式没有绝对的好坏，关键是它们是否符合你的家庭需求和长期预算。

九、这八个区域，到底应该怎么比较？

如果你正在纽约买房，我不建议只问："哪个区最好？"

更值得问的是："按照我的预算、家庭需求和生活习惯，哪个区域更适合我？"

可以先从下面几个方向开始比较。

如果最关心孩子的学校

先明确孩子的年级和具体需求，再核实目标地址对应的学校、招生资格和课程安排。

Bayside、Whitestone、Flushing、Fresh Meadows、Little Neck、Great Neck、Roslyn 和 Sands Point 的学校体系并不完全相同，不能简单地用一张网上排名表决定买房地点。

如果最关心公园和户外活动

可以重点实地了解 Crocheron Park、Fort Totten Park、Cunningham Park、Kissena Park、Alley Pond Park、Steppingstone Park 和 Sands Point Preserve 等地点。

但除了公园本身，也要看它距离目标房屋有多远、是否方便到达，以及使用时有没有居住资格或入场规定。

如果最关心购物和日常便利性

建议亲自走一遍目标房屋到超市、餐厅、火车站或公交站的路线。

地图上看起来很近，不代表实际走起来方便。道路设计、停车、步行环境和交通班次，都会影响每天的生活。

如果最关心长期居住成本

不要只比较挂牌价格。

还应该把地税、房屋保险、维修费用、物业费（如有）、通勤开支，以及可能需要进行的系统维修一起计算。

尤其是独立屋，不同房龄、屋顶、暖炉、地下室、排水和污水处理系统的状况，都可能带来不一样的持有成本。

十、看房前，建议先做好这四件事

第一，核实学校。

在纽约市，可以使用 NYC Public Schools 的 Find a School 工具，根据具体地址查询学校分区，再向学校确认最新入学安排。

长岛的 Great Neck、Roslyn 和 Port Washington 等学区，则应直接向相应学区确认。

第二，实地看社区。

不要只在开放日看房。可以在工作日和周末分别去一次，观察交通、停车、噪音和周边生活环境。

第三，比较同类成交房屋。

尽量把房屋类型、面积、房龄、地块、装修和地税等条件放在一起比较。挂牌价只是卖家的要价，不等于最终成交价，也不能单独代表房屋的真实价值。

第四，算清长期成本。

买房是一笔长期支出。首付和每月房贷固然重要，但地税、保险、维护、维修和通勤成本，同样会影响家庭未来的财务安排。

写在最后

我一直觉得，纽约买房有意思的地方就在于：看起来都在同一个大都会区域，实际住起来却可能是完全不同的生活。

有人喜欢 Bayside 的住宅环境，有人喜欢 Flushing 的商业便利；有人更看重 Great Neck 或 Roslyn 的学校与社区资源，也有人愿意为了 Sands Point 的空间和安静，接受不同的通勤和维护安排。

没有一个地方能满足所有人的需求，也没有一个学校排名能够代替你对生活的判断。

买房不只是选择一栋房子，也是在选择未来很多年的生活方式。

我是 Tony Huang，纽约地产经纪人。

希望通过这些实地观察和信息整理，帮助你在买房之前，把重要的问题想得更清楚一点。

How to choose a community when buying in New York? Schools, parks, and lifestyle across 8 hot areas.

When buying in New York, most people start with three questions. How big is the house, how's the renovation, is the price fair?

But once you actually live there, you find daily life hinges on other things. Are schools convenient? Is there somewhere to walk and exercise on weekends? Are groceries and restaurants nearby? How long is the commute? And how much does it cost to hold each year?

Today let's talk about eight areas New York buyers constantly compare. Bayside, Whitestone, Flushing, Fresh Meadows, Little Neck, Great Neck, Roslyn, and Sands Point.

First, this isn't a ranking of the eight, and it's not about which is "best." Different locations, lifestyles, housing types, and community character. Different families fit different places.

One critical principle on schools. A community name does not equal admission to a specific school. Especially in New York, before buying, verify the exact address's school zone or admissions rules. Don't decide on one line in a listing ad saying "great schools."

One. Bayside. Balancing schools, residential feel, and daily convenience.

Bayside is in northeast Queens, an area many buyers consider.

It has houses and other housing types, plus commercial streets, restaurants, transit, and parks. For families who want to live in New York City but value a residential feel, Bayside is worth visiting in person.

On schools. Schools to look into include P.S. 159, P.S. 31, P.S. 205, J.H.S. 74 Nathaniel Hawthorne, M.S. 158 Marie Curie, and Bayside High School.

But note: not every Bayside address feeds these schools. Different streets can zone to different schools, and some have their own admissions. When you're serious about buying, check the specific address first, then verify eligibility for your child's grade.

Parks and outdoors. Crocheron Park has trails, sports, play space, and views over Little Neck Bay.

Fort Totten Park has historic structures, natural space, and walking routes. Good for outdoor lovers and weekend family outings.

From a buying angle. Bayside lets you weigh residential life, daily convenience, and outdoors together.

But streets called Bayside can differ in transit, housing condition, taxes, noise, and prices.

I'd suggest not judging by the community's overall impression. Walk the streets near your target home. Go once on a weekday and once on a weekend. Check parking, quiet, how far daily shopping is.

Sometimes what shapes daily life most are these unglamorous details.

Two. Whitestone. Residential feel and waterfront outdoor space.

Whitestone is in northeast Queens, near the East River and Little Neck Bay. Compared to busier commercial areas, some blocks lean more residential.

But Whitestone varies internally. Don't assume the whole area is one housing type or lifestyle.

On schools. Whitestone public schools fall mainly in New York City's District 25. Buyers can look into P.S. 79, P.S. 209, P.S. 193, P.S. 184, but must confirm zoning and eligibility by exact address.

I don't recommend judging a whole area's education by one online school rating.

Different platforms score differently. Some weight parent reviews, some test data, some other metrics. Look at official school materials, curriculum, your child's actual needs, and the commute your family can accept.

Parks and outdoors. Francis Lewis Park and Little Bay Park are worth knowing.

If you like bay walks, water views, or want weekend activity space, add both parks to your house-hunting route.

From a buying angle. Beyond the residential feel, consider distances to main roads, shopping, and work.

If you drive to work daily, or have seniors and kids at home, test the route in real commute hours.

Buying isn't just buying a house. It decides how you'll leave and come home every day for years.

Three. Flushing. Concentrated commerce, transit, and public facilities.

Flushing moves at a different pace from the last two areas.

Lots of restaurants, supermarkets, commercial activity, and public transit. Strong pull for people who love Chinese food, want easy shopping, or rely on transit for work and life.

But Flushing is big. The commercial core, traditional residential streets, and outer neighborhoods can feel completely different.

On schools. Flushing's schools and districts must be verified by exact address. The community name alone says nothing.

Special mention: Townsend Harris High School.

It has its own admissions. Buying in Flushing does not automatically get you into Townsend Harris. If your family targets this school, check New York City public school admissions info and that year's requirements directly.

Parks and outdoors. Flushing Meadows Corona Park is one of New York City's signature parks. Big open space, sports facilities, and cultural spots like the Queens Museum.

Kissena Park has a lake, walking space, and sports facilities. Good for adding outdoors to city life.

From a buying angle. Flushing's strength is concentrated commerce and transit, but that doesn't mean every street is convenient, or every home fits every family.

When viewing, watch three things.

First, how far exactly to the subway, bus, and daily shopping.

Second, traffic, parking, and noise near the home.

Third, whether the home itself is sound, including repair needs, taxes, HOA fees, and nearby comparable sale prices.

Some buyers love stepping out to restaurants and shops. Others want quiet when they get home. Street-by-street differences inside Flushing deserve real comparison.

Four. Fresh Meadows. Weighing residential life and daily getting-around together.

Fresh Meadows is in central-eastern Queens, an area many families include in their search.

It has different housing types, plus shopping, parks, and main roads. For buyers considering northeast Queens, compare Fresh Meadows with Bayside and Whitestone together, not just one of them.

On schools. Look into P.S. 173 and other local public schools. Some addresses may zone to different middle or high schools.

Francis Lewis High School is one many families watch. But a home described as Fresh Meadows doesn't guarantee eligibility. Verify by address, grade, and admissions rules.

Parks and outdoors. Cunningham Park and Kissena Park are worth attention.

Cunningham has walking and sports space, some areas good for cycling. Kissena offers a lake, green space, and varied sports facilities.

If you have kids, or enjoy walking, running, and outdoors, visit in person and see if the facilities match your habits.

From a buying angle. Fresh Meadows can't be summed up as "cheaper than Bayside" or "definitely bigger houses."

Prices and sizes depend on housing type, age, lot, renovation, taxes, and exact location.

When comparing, match similar housing types and sizes, then look at recent closings. Don't compare a beautifully renovated house in one area against a fixer-upper in another.

The useful question for buyers: within my budget, which specific address best balances my family's living needs, commute, and long-term costs?

Five. Little Neck. Valuing nature and a quieter life.

Little Neck is in northeast Queens, near Nassau County. Residential streets, natural space, and routes to surrounding areas.

For people who like outdoors and don't want life revolving around a commercial center, Little Neck belongs in the comparison.

On schools. Look into P.S. 221 North Hills, J.H.S. 67 Louis Pasteur, and Benjamin N. Cardozo High School.

But these don't mean every Little Neck home zones the same. Still verify by exact address and grade.

Parks and nature. Alley Pond Park is one of Queens' important natural spaces, with trails, woodlands, and wetlands.

Udalls Cove Park Preserve leans more toward nature preservation and observation. Good for walking, birding, and being close to nature.

If green space near home matters to you, factor park distance and actual walking routes into the decision.

From a buying angle. Little Neck's natural setting is a real plus, but transit convenience still depends on exact location.

In the same community, train proximity, daily shopping, and driving ease all shape daily life.

I suggest not concluding after ten minutes on a weekday afternoon. Observe on a weekday morning and evening. Note traffic, parking, surroundings.

Quiet matters. But if the daily commute costs much more time, factor that in too.

Six. Great Neck. A Long Island school and community alternative.

Great Neck is in Nassau County, on Long Island, not in Queens. But being close to northeast Queens, buyers often compare it with Bayside and Little Neck.

It has different residential communities, its own public school system, and park facilities.

On schools. Buyers can look into Great Neck South High School, Great Neck North High School, plus E.M. Baker and Lakeville elementary schools.

But Great Neck zoning and admissions need especially careful verification. Different addresses can zone to different schools. The name Great Neck alone decides nothing.

Contact Great Neck Public Schools' registration office directly to confirm the schools for your target address.

Parks and outdoors. Steppingstone Park sits on Long Island Sound, with water views, a marina, and outdoor facilities.

Kings Point Park is another outdoor space worth knowing.

One easily missed detail. Living in a house with a Great Neck mailing address does not mean you belong to the Great Neck Park District.

The Park District's official non-district communities include Great Neck Estates, Harbor Hills, Lake Success, Saddle Rock, and University Gardens. Using some parks, pools, or programs may require residency and a Park Card.

So if local park facilities matter to you, confirm park eligibility before buying.

From a buying angle. Great Neck is worth considering not just for schools, but for residential feel, transit, community services, and family lifestyle.

But don't let a school district name make you ignore the home's price, taxes, and maintenance costs.

Especially comparing New York City and Long Island properties, weigh total holding costs, commute, and real living needs together. Tax structures, housing types, and daily travel can differ by area.

Seven. Roslyn. Historic town, school resources, and daily life combined.

Roslyn is on Long Island's North Shore, a place many Nassau County buyers look into further.

It has a historic town center, traditional architecture, plus restaurants, shops, and public leisure space. Compared to life built around driving to big commercial centers, parts of Roslyn have a stronger small-town commercial feel.

On schools. Focus on Roslyn Union Free School District, including Roslyn High School, Roslyn Middle School, and district elementary schools.

But distinguish three things: the name Roslyn, the specific home's municipal boundaries, and the school district's borders.

They don't necessarily overlap. A listing saying Roslyn doesn't guarantee a school's attendance zone. Have the district confirm by exact address before buying.

Parks and living environment. Gerry Park in Roslyn Village is a local green space worth knowing.

Nearby there's also Christopher Morley Park. Roslyn's character is historic streets meeting small-town commerce. If you like walking, eating, browsing shops, experience the local rhythm in person.

From a buying angle. Roslyn is worth attention not just for school reputation, but for the combination of school resources, community feel, and daily convenience.

But housing types, ages, taxes, transit, and maintenance needs can vary hugely by block.

If you're considering Roslyn, don't just look at home photos or school profiles. Walk the nearby streets, shopping, transit routes, and recent closings together. That's how you judge fit.

Eight. Sands Point. Prioritizing space, privacy, and nature.

Sands Point sits at the tip of the Port Washington peninsula on Long Island's North Shore, a village known for low-density living and natural space.

Its vibe differs from Roslyn. Parts of Roslyn have town commerce and daily shopping. Sands Point leans quiet, private, residential-first.

On schools. Sands Point residents are served by the Port Washington School District.

But buyers should still go by the district's formal confirmation for the exact address, not the mailing address or listing ad, for enrollment eligibility.

Parks and nature. Sands Point Preserve is a local nature and historic site worth knowing. Woodlands, trails, open lawns, historic buildings. Good for nature and outdoor lovers.

Note the Preserve has its own hours and entry rules, and some historic buildings open only on scheduled tours. Check official info before visiting.

From a buying angle. Sands Point's appeal comes more from setting, spaciousness, and privacy than walk-to-everything convenience.

One very practical inspection item. According to the Village of Sands Point, there's no public sewer. Homes use owner-maintained private cesspool systems.

That means beyond renovation and lot size, understand the sewage system's condition, maintenance records, and inspection and repair requirements.

Home maintenance, landscaping, taxes, and commute time should all go into the long-term budget.

If you prefer town life and daily convenience, compare Roslyn more. If you value quiet, space, and nature more, Sands Point deserves a real visit.

Neither lifestyle is absolutely better. What matters is whether it fits your family's needs and long-term budget.

Nine. How should you actually compare these eight areas?

If you're buying in New York, I don't suggest asking only "which area is best?"

Better to ask: "Given my budget, family needs, and habits, which area fits me?"

Start comparing along these lines.

If schools matter most.

First clarify your child's grade and needs, then verify the target address's schools, eligibility, and programs.

Bayside, Whitestone, Flushing, Fresh Meadows, Little Neck, Great Neck, Roslyn, and Sands Point run different school systems. Don't pick a buying location off one online ranking table.

If parks and outdoors matter most.

Visit Crocheron Park, Fort Totten Park, Cunningham Park, Kissena Park, Alley Pond Park, Steppingstone Park, and Sands Point Preserve in person.

But beyond the park itself, check how far it is from your target home, how easy it is to reach, and whether use requires residency or entry rules.

If shopping and daily convenience matter most.

Walk the route from your target home to supermarkets, restaurants, train or bus stops in person.

Close on the map doesn't mean easy on foot. Road design, parking, walking environment, and transit frequency all shape daily life.

If long-term holding costs matter most.

Don't just compare asking prices.

Add up property tax, homeowner's insurance, maintenance, HOA if any, commuting, and likely system repairs.

Especially for houses, different ages, roofs, furnaces, basements, drainage, and sewage systems can mean very different holding costs.

Ten. Four things to do before house hunting.

First, verify schools.

In New York City, use NYC Public Schools' Find a School tool to look up zoning by exact address, then confirm current admissions with the school.

For Long Island districts like Great Neck, Roslyn, and Port Washington, confirm directly with each district.

Second, visit the community in person.

Don't just visit on open-house day. Go once on a weekday and once on a weekend. Observe traffic, parking, noise, surroundings.

Third, compare comparable closings.

Match housing type, size, age, lot, renovation, and taxes together. Asking price is just the seller's ask, not the final sale price, and alone it can't represent true value.

Fourth, calculate long-term costs.

Buying is long-term spending. Down payment and monthly mortgage matter, but taxes, insurance, maintenance, repairs, and commuting shape the family's future finances too.

Closing thoughts.

What I find interesting about buying in New York: it can look like one metro area, but living in it can mean completely different lives.

Some love Bayside's residential feel, some love Flushing's commercial buzz. Some value Great Neck or Roslyn's schools and community resources. Others accept different commutes and upkeep for Sands Point's space and quiet.

No place fits everyone, and no school ranking replaces your own judgment about life.

Buying isn't just choosing a house. It's choosing how you'll live for many years.

I'm Tony Huang, a New York real estate agent.

I hope these field observations and organized information help you think through the important questions more clearly before buying.

大家好，我是Tony。

最近很多人都在问：美联储利率这么高，到底对房地产意味着什么？很多人的第一反应就是：房贷贵了，买房的人少了。这个当然没错。

但我觉得，真正值得关注的，其实不是这一层。高利率对房地产最大的影响，是它可能慢慢改变整个房地产的资金逻辑。

你可以把房地产想成一条链。第一环，是买房的人。

房贷利率高，月供就上去了，购买力自然下降。假设贷款100万美元，利率从6%到接近7%，每个月的本息月供就会增加六百多美元。

一个百分点，看起来好像没有多少，但对于真正背着几百万美元贷款的人来说，一年下来，就是几千、甚至上万美元的现金流压力。

所以第一个变化很简单：同样的钱，买不到以前那么大的房子。

但第二层影响，可能更加重要。买家觉得贵，卖家却不一定愿意降价。

为什么？因为很多老房主手里的贷款利率可能只有3%、4%左右。如果现在把房子卖掉，再买一套，等于把一个低利率贷款，换成一个明显更高的贷款。

所以你会看到一个很有意思的现象：买家觉得贵，卖家又不太愿意卖。

结果可能不是房价马上大跌，而是先出现：成交量下降，库存结构发生变化，买卖双方议价时间变长。

而第三层，其实才是我最关注的。房地产开发商。

买地，要贷款。盖房子，要贷款。商业地产，要贷款。公寓、办公楼、购物中心，背后很多项目都需要融资。

当融资成本长期维持在高位，一个原来能够赚钱的项目，可能重新算一遍账，就发现利润已经没有那么好了。

于是开发商可能会选择：不买地，不开发，推迟开工，甚至重新设计整个项目。

这也是为什么，我们不能只看今天房贷是多少。我们更应该观察：高利率会不会开始改变未来几年的住房供应。

因为今天少开发一个项目，影响可能不是今天出现。而可能是在两三年以后，当市场真正需要这些房子的时候，你才发现：当年的高融资成本，已经改变了今天的供应量。

所以高利率真正厉害的地方，不是一下子把房地产打下来。而是它可能一点一点改变房地产的周期。

而现在，我觉得还有一个更加值得观察的问题。美联储到底会不会很快重新降息？

9月16日，美联储把联邦基金利率目标区间提高到3.75%到4%。而9月的经济预测显示，官员对未来利率路径的判断仍然存在明显分歧。(Federal Reserve)

接下来还有10月和12月的会议。所以与其去猜：“12月一定加还是不加？”我觉得普通投资者更应该关注的是：每一次会议之后，市场对未来利率路径的预期有没有发生变化。

因为真正影响房地产的，往往不是某一天加了25个基点。而是市场开始相信：这个高利率环境，可能还会持续多久？

如果只是短期，很多开发商可以等等。很多买家也可以等等。很多投资人也可以等等。

但如果市场逐渐形成一种预期：高利率可能维持更长时间，那整个行业的计算方式都会发生变化。

开发商重新计算土地价格。投资人重新计算回报率。银行重新评估贷款风险。买家重新计算自己的购买力。甚至房东都会重新考虑：我的房产收益，到底能不能跑赢其他资产？

这时候，高利率影响的就已经不只是房地产了。它开始影响股票估值、企业融资、投资回报率，甚至普通人的消费能力。

因为资金是会流动的。如果低风险资产能够提供不错的收益，投资人就会开始问：为什么我要承担房地产的流动性风险、管理成本和空置风险？

所以我越来越觉得，我们真正需要观察的，不是：“房价明年到底涨还是跌？”而是三个东西。

1. 利率会在什么水平停留多久。
2. 高融资成本会不会继续压制房地产成交和开发。
3. 资本会不会开始重新在房地产、债券、股票和其他资产之间寻找新的平衡。

因为房地产最怕的，有时候不是利率高一点。而是大家开始适应一个新的利率环境。

一旦市场从“等降息”，慢慢变成“接受高利率可能持续更久”，买家、卖家、开发商和投资人的行为，都会慢慢改变。

而这，可能才是这一轮高利率对房地产最深层的影响。

最后还是会回到我们每个人的钱包：你的房贷，你的租金，你的投资组合，你的工作收入，甚至你未来买房的价格。

所以我觉得，真正值得研究的，从来不是某一次25个基点。而是：

如果高利率从一个短期现象，慢慢变成一种长期环境，我们每个人的资产负债表，会发生什么变化？

这个问题，可能比预测明年房价涨还是跌，更值得我们认真研究。

Hi everyone, I'm Tony.

A lot of people have been asking lately: With the Fed's rates so high, what does it actually mean for real estate? Most people's first reaction is: Mortgages are expensive, so fewer people buy homes. That's certainly true.

But I think what's really worth paying attention to isn't that layer. The biggest impact of high rates on real estate is that they may slowly change the entire funding logic of real estate.

Think of real estate as a chain. The first link is homebuyers.

With high mortgage rates, monthly payments go up, and purchasing power naturally declines. Take a $1 million loan as an example—as rates move from 6% toward 7%, the monthly principal-and-interest payment rises by more than $600.

One percentage point may not sound like much, but for someone truly carrying a multi-million-dollar loan, that adds up to thousands—even tens of thousands—of dollars in annual cash-flow pressure.

So the first change is simple: the same money buys less house than before.

But the second layer of impact may matter even more. Buyers feel it's expensive, but sellers aren't necessarily willing to cut prices.

Why? Because many longtime homeowners are holding mortgages at around 3% or 4%. If they sell now and buy again, they'd be trading a low-rate loan for a clearly higher one.

So you see an interesting phenomenon: buyers think it's expensive, yet sellers aren't eager to sell.

The result may not be an immediate plunge in home prices, but rather: transaction volume declines, inventory mix shifts, and negotiations between buyers and sellers take longer.

And the third layer is actually what I'm watching most closely: real estate developers.

Buying land requires loans. Building homes requires loans. Commercial real estate requires loans. Apartments, office buildings, shopping centers—many of these projects depend on financing.

When financing costs stay high for a long time, a project that used to pencil out may, after running the numbers again, turn out to be far less profitable.

So developers may choose to not buy land, not develop, delay groundbreaking, or even redesign entire projects.

That's why we can't just look at today's mortgage rate. We should be watching whether high rates will start changing housing supply in the coming years.

Because one fewer project developed today may not show its impact today. It may only become visible two or three years from now, when the market truly needs those homes, and you realize that the high financing costs back then have already changed today's supply.

So the truly powerful thing about high rates isn't that they knock real estate down all at once. It's that they may gradually change the real estate cycle, bit by bit.

And now, I think there's an even more important question to watch. Will the Fed cut rates again soon?

On September 16, the Fed raised its federal funds rate target range to 3.75%–4%. And September's economic projections showed officials remain clearly divided on the future rate path. (Federal Reserve)

There are still meetings in October and December. So rather than guessing, “Will they definitely hike or not in December?” I think ordinary investors should focus on whether the market's expectations for the future rate path have changed after each meeting.

Because what really moves real estate is often not a 25-basis-point move on a given day. It's the market starting to believe how long this high-rate environment might last.

If it's only short-term, many developers can wait. Many buyers can wait. Many investors can wait.

But if the market gradually forms an expectation that high rates may persist for longer, then the entire industry's math changes.

Developers recalculate land prices. Investors recalculate returns. Banks reassess lending risk. Buyers recalculate their purchasing power. Even landlords reconsider whether their property's returns can really beat other assets.

At that point, high rates are no longer just affecting real estate. They start affecting stock valuations, corporate financing, investment returns, and even ordinary people's spending power.

Because capital flows. If low-risk assets can offer decent returns, investors start asking: why should I take on real estate's liquidity risk, management costs, and vacancy risk?

So I'm increasingly convinced that what we really need to watch is not, “Will home prices rise or fall next year?” but three things.

1. How long rates will stay at what level.
2. Whether high financing costs will keep suppressing real estate transactions and development.
3. Whether capital will start seeking a new balance across real estate, bonds, stocks, and other assets.

Because what real estate fears most is sometimes not rates being a bit higher. It's everyone starting to adapt to a new rate environment.

Once the market shifts from “waiting for rate cuts” to slowly “accepting that high rates may last longer,” the behavior of buyers, sellers, developers, and investors will gradually change.

And that may be this round of high rates' deepest impact on real estate.

In the end, it all comes back to each of our wallets: your mortgage, your rent, your investment portfolio, your work income, even the price of your future home purchase.

So I think what's truly worth studying was never a single 25-basis-point move. It's this:

If high rates slowly shift from a short-term phenomenon to a long-term environment, what happens to each of our balance sheets?

That question may deserve more serious study than predicting whether home prices rise or fall next year.

大家好，我是Tony。

上一篇我们聊了一个问题：

高利率，到底是怎么影响房地产的？

但是接下来一个问题可能更加有意思：

现在30年固定房贷已经接近7%了。
(Freddie Mac)

按理说，

房贷这么贵，

买房的人应该越来越少，

那为什么房价没有跟着一起大跌？

这个问题，

其实特别值得研究。

因为房地产和股票最大的一个不同就是：

股票的价格，可以一天之内重新定价很多次。

但是房地产不是。

房地产是一套一套房子，

背后是一个个家庭，

还有贷款、税、保险、装修、生活需求。

所以高利率出现以后，

房地产往往不是马上"跌"，

而是先出现另外一种状态：

成交越来越难。

你可以想象一下。

一个买家看中了一套100万美元的房子。

以前6%的利率，

和现在接近7%的利率，

每个月的本息支出就已经明显不一样。

所以买家会开始想：

"能不能买便宜一点？"

"能不能少借一点？"

"要不要再等等？"

这就是高利率对需求端的影响。

可是问题来了。

卖家呢？

卖家为什么一定要降价？

特别是那些几年前已经买房的人。

如果他当年的贷款利率只有3%左右，

现在卖掉以后，

再买一套差不多的房子，

可能意味着：

把自己的低利率贷款，

换成一个接近7%的贷款。

这种情况下，

有些房主会想：

我为什么要卖？

所以就出现了一个非常有意思的现象：

买家在往后退，

卖家也不一定愿意往前走。

最后发生的事情，

可能不是房价马上大跌，

而是：

成交量先下来。

这一点其实已经能从现在的市场里面看到一些迹象。

比如8月份，美国现房销售速度放缓，Realtor.com的数据显示，待售房屋库存增加、销售速度下降，持续偏高的房贷利率继续给买家带来压力。(Realtor)

但是另外一边，

供应也没有一下子大量涌出来。

纽约尤其明显。

8月份纽约都会区活跃房源大约3.67万套，同比虽然增加了3.2%，但新挂牌量反而下降了1.7%。(Realtor)

所以你会发现：

需求受到利率压制，供应却没有完全释放。

这就是为什么，

房地产有时候会出现一种很奇怪的状态：

市场很冷，但是价格没有崩。

而且纽约还有一个很有意思的现象。

StreetEasy的数据显示，2026年8月，纽约市仍有21.8%的成交房源最终高于最近一次挂牌价成交。(StreetEasy)

这并不代表整个纽约市场都很火热，

恰恰相反，

它说明现在的市场越来越分化。

真正有竞争力的房子，

可能依然有人抢。

价格不合理、房子条件一般的，

可能就会在市场上待更久。

所以现在看房地产，

我觉得不能简单地说：

"利率高，所以房价一定跌。"

也不能说：

"房价没跌，所以市场没问题。"

这两个说法，

其实都太简单了。

真正应该看的，是三个东西：

第一，成交量。

买家到底还愿不愿意买？

第二，库存。

卖家到底愿不愿意把房子拿出来卖？

第三，价格。

当成交量下降以后，

卖家到底还能不能守住原来的价格？

这三个东西放在一起，

我们才能真正看懂房地产。

而且这里还有一个特别重要的概念：

房地产的价格有时候是"僵硬"的。

什么意思？

股票跌10%，

你今天就可以卖。

但是一套房子，

卖家可能宁愿不卖，

也不愿意一下子降10%。

因为他还有贷款，

还有税，

还有自己的心理价格，

甚至还有下一套房子的购买计划。

所以高利率环境下，

房地产可能出现的不是：

"价格马上跌。"

而是：

"买卖双方都开始等待。"

买家等利率，

卖家等价格，

开发商等融资成本，

投资人等回报率。

所有人都在等。

而这个"等"，

其实就是房地产周期变慢的一个重要表现。

所以我现在反而觉得，

我们研究房地产，

不要每天只盯着：

"房价涨了多少？"

"跌了多少？"

有时候更加值得看的，

是：

成交有没有变少？

房子是不是卖得越来越慢？

卖家是不是开始降价？

开发商是不是开始减少新项目？

因为这些变化，

往往会比房价本身更早告诉你：

房地产的周期，

到底发生了什么。

所以回到我们最开始的问题：

为什么利率这么高，房价却没有马上暴跌？

答案可能很简单：

因为高利率在压制买家，

但低利率旧贷款、有限的住房供应，以及卖家的惜售，

又在限制价格下跌的速度。

而真正值得观察的，

不是房价明天会不会跌10%。

而是：

如果高利率持续更久，

这种"买家不愿买、卖家不愿卖"的状态，

还能维持多久？

这可能才是下一阶段房地产真正值得关注的地方。

我是Tony。

我们下一篇继续往下拆：

为什么高利率最先杀掉的，

可能不是房价，

而是房地产的成交量。

Hi everyone, I'm Tony.

Last time we talked about one question: how exactly do high interest rates change real estate?

But the next question might be even more interesting:

The thirty-year fixed mortgage rate is now approaching seven percent. (Freddie Mac)

Logically, with mortgages this expensive, fewer and fewer people should be buying homes. So why haven't home prices crashed along with it?

This question is really worth digging into.

Because the biggest difference between real estate and stocks is this: a stock's price can be repriced many times in a single day.

Real estate is different.

Real estate is house by house, family by family, with mortgages, taxes, insurance, renovations, and real life needs behind each one.

So when high rates arrive, real estate usually doesn't drop right away. Instead, a different state appears first: transactions get harder and harder.

Imagine this. A buyer has their eye on a one million dollar home. At the old six percent rate versus today's near seven percent rate, the monthly principal and interest payment is already noticeably different.

So the buyer starts thinking: Can I buy something cheaper? Can I borrow less? Should I wait a little longer?

That is the impact of high rates on the demand side.

But here is the question. What about sellers? Why would sellers have to cut prices?

Especially those who bought years ago. If their mortgage rate was around three percent, selling now and buying a comparable home could mean trading their low rate mortgage for one near seven percent.

In that situation, some homeowners think: why would I sell?

So a fascinating phenomenon appears. Buyers are stepping back, and sellers aren't necessarily stepping forward either.

What happens in the end may not be a sudden price crash, but this: transaction volume comes down first.

We are already seeing signs of this in today's market. For example, in August, the pace of existing home sales slowed. Realtor dot com data shows for-sale inventory rising and homes selling more slowly, as persistently high mortgage rates continue to pressure buyers. (Realtor)

But on the other side, supply hasn't flooded the market all at once either.

New York is a clear example. In August, active listings in the New York metro area were about thirty-six thousand seven hundred, up three point two percent year over year, yet new listings actually fell one point seven percent. (Realtor)

So you see: demand is suppressed by rates, but supply hasn't fully opened up either.

That is why real estate can sometimes enter a strange state: the market feels cold, but prices haven't collapsed.

And New York has another interesting phenomenon. StreetEasy data shows that in August twenty twenty-six, twenty-one point eight percent of closed sales in New York City still sold above their most recent asking price. (StreetEasy)

That doesn't mean the whole New York market is hot. Quite the opposite. It shows the market is increasingly split.

Truly competitive homes may still attract bidding wars. Overpriced or average condition homes may sit on the market much longer.

So when looking at real estate today, I don't think we can simply say: rates are high, so prices must fall. Nor can we say: prices haven't fallen, so the market is fine. Both statements are too simplistic.

What we should really watch are three things.

First, transaction volume. Are buyers still willing to buy?

Second, inventory. Are sellers willing to put their homes on the market?

Third, price. After volume declines, can sellers still hold their original prices?

Only by putting these three together can we truly read real estate.

And there is one more especially important concept: real estate prices can be sticky.

What does that mean? If a stock drops ten percent, you can sell it today. But for a house, a seller might rather not sell than cut ten percent all at once. Because there is still the mortgage, the taxes, their psychological price, even plans for their next home.

So in a high rate environment, what real estate may experience is not prices drop immediately, but this: both buyers and sellers start waiting.

Buyers wait for rates. Sellers wait for prices. Developers wait for financing costs. Investors wait for returns.

Everyone is waiting.

And this waiting is an important sign that the real estate cycle is slowing down.

So I actually think that when we study real estate, we shouldn't just stare every day at how much did prices rise, or how much did they fall.

Sometimes what is more worth watching is: Are transactions shrinking? Are homes selling more and more slowly? Are sellers starting to cut prices? Are developers pulling back on new projects?

Because these changes will often tell you what is happening with the real estate cycle long before prices themselves do.

So back to our original question: with rates this high, why haven't home prices crashed?

The answer may be simple. High rates are squeezing buyers, but old low rate mortgages, limited housing supply, and sellers' reluctance to sell are limiting how fast prices can fall.

And what truly deserves attention is not whether prices will drop ten percent tomorrow, but this:

If high rates persist, how long can this state of buyers won't buy, sellers won't sell last?

That may be what really deserves our attention in the next phase of real estate.

I'm Tony. Next time, we will break down further: why high rates may kill real estate's transaction volume before they kill its prices.

大家好，我是Tony。

前面两篇，

我们一直在聊一个问题：

为什么利率这么高，房价却没有马上大跌？

今天我们往下再走一步。

我反而觉得，

高利率最先打击的，

可能根本不是房价。

而是——

成交量。

什么意思？

我们先看一个最新的数据。

截至9月17日，

美国30年固定房贷平均利率已经到了6.95%。

而8月份，美国成屋销售年化只有398万套，

比7月份下降2%，

同比也下降了1.2%。

与此同时，

全国待售库存反而增加到了162万套，

库存月数达到4.9个月，

是十多年来比较高的水平。 (Freddie Mac)

所以现在出现了一个挺有意思的现象：

房子越来越难卖，

但价格却没有同步大幅下跌。

为什么？

因为房地产不是股票。

股票跌了，

你可能今天就卖。

但是房子不一样。

一个卖家如果觉得：

“这个价格太低了，

我宁愿不卖。”

他完全可以把房子继续放在那里。

所以高利率来了以后，

市场可能首先发生的不是：

价格暴跌。

而是：

交易的人越来越少。

买家觉得贵，

不买了。

卖家觉得价格低，

不卖了。

最后买卖双方一起等。

这就是房地产市场非常典型的：

“量先缩，价后变。”

当然，

这并不意味着房价永远不会调整。

因为如果成交量长期低迷，

库存又不断增加，

卖家的资金压力开始变大，

那么最终还是可能通过：

降价、

让利、

延长上市时间，

甚至重新装修以后再卖，

来寻找买家。

所以真正值得观察的是：

成交量下降以后，库存有没有继续增加？

如果只是成交少，

但库存也没有明显增加，

说明很多卖家可能只是选择不卖。

可是如果出现：

成交量下降，

库存持续增加，

房子在市场上待的时间越来越长，

降价房源越来越多，

那就不一样了。

这时候，

市场的议价权就可能慢慢发生变化。

从卖家市场，

向买家市场移动。

而现在美国市场已经出现了一些这样的迹象。

8月份，

全国库存同比增加5.9%，

销售速度却下降。

这意味着买家相比前几年，

确实获得了更多选择和议价空间。 (Realtor)

但是纽约又很有意思。

纽约市8月份进入合同的房源同比下降5.4%，

可是仍然有21.8%的成交房源，

最终卖到了最近一次挂牌价以上。

Queens也有24.2%的成交房源高于最近一次挂牌价。 (StreetEasy)

这说明什么？

现在的房地产市场，越来越不能用一句“涨”或者“跌”来概括。

好房子，

合理定价，

位置好，

条件好，

依然可能有人抢。

但是那些：

价格定得高、

房子条件一般、

需要大量维修，

或者买家觉得不值得的房子，

可能就会在市场上待更久。

所以以后看房地产，

我觉得大家不要只问：

“房价跌了吗？”

我更建议看四个数字。

第一：

成交量。

到底有多少房子真的卖掉了？

第二：

库存。

市场上到底有多少房子在竞争买家？

第三：

Days on Market。

房子平均要卖多久？

第四：

Price Cut。

卖家是不是开始越来越频繁地降价？

因为这四个东西放在一起，

其实比单独看一个房价指数，

更能告诉你：

房地产市场的真实温度。

而这也是为什么，

我一直不太喜欢一句话：

“利率高，房价就一定跌。”

没这么简单。

更准确的说法应该是：

高利率首先降低了买家的购买力和交易意愿。

然后，

如果这种状态持续足够长，

才可能通过库存、现金流和卖家行为，

慢慢传导到价格。

所以，

真正值得我们观察的，

不是某一天房价跌了1%，

而是：

成交量下降以后，

这个市场还能不能保持住原来的价格。

这就回到了我们前面讲的一个核心问题：

高利率到底会持续多久？

如果只是几个月，

很多人可以等。

如果持续一年，

市场会慢慢调整。

但如果它变成一个更长期的资金环境，

那就完全是另外一回事了。

因为到那个时候，

房地产面对的就不只是：

“今天的房贷贵不贵？”

而是：

买家、卖家、开发商和投资人，

是不是都开始适应一个新的利率世界？

这才是我接下来最想研究的。

下一篇我们继续往下拆：

为什么很多美国房主明明想卖，却又不愿意卖？

这里面，

有一个非常关键的东西：

3%的老房贷。

Hi everyone, I'm Tony.

In the last two articles,

we've been circling one question:

Why haven't home prices crashed,

even with rates this high?

Today, let's take it one step further.

I actually think the first thing high rates hit

may not be home prices at all.

It's —

transaction volume.

What do I mean?

Let's look at the latest data.

As of September 17,

the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the U.S. reached 6.95%.

And in August, annualized existing-home sales were just 3.98 million units,

down 2% from July,

and down 1.2% year over year.

At the same time,

national for-sale inventory rose to 1.62 million units,

with months of supply reaching 4.9 months,

a relatively high level for the past decade-plus. (Freddie Mac)

So we're seeing something interesting:

Homes are getting harder to sell,

but prices haven't fallen in step.

Why?

Because real estate isn't the stock market.

When a stock drops,

you might sell it the same day.

But a home is different.

If a seller feels:

"The price is too low,

I'd rather not sell."

He can simply keep the house right where it is.

So after high rates arrived,

what the market may experience first is not:

a price crash.

It's:

fewer and fewer transactions.

Buyers think it's too expensive,

so they stop buying.

Sellers think the price is too low,

so they stop selling.

In the end, both sides just wait.

This is the classic pattern in real estate:

"Volume shrinks first, prices adjust later."

Of course,

that doesn't mean home prices will never adjust.

Because if low transaction volume persists,

inventory keeps building,

and sellers' financial pressure starts to grow,

then eventually they may still have to find buyers by:

cutting prices,

offering concessions,

staying on the market longer,

or even renovating before relisting.

So what really deserves watching is:

after volume drops, does inventory keep rising?

If transactions are slow

but inventory isn't building meaningfully,

it means many sellers are simply choosing not to sell.

But if we see:

falling volume,

steadily rising inventory,

homes sitting on the market longer and longer,

and more and more price cuts,

then it's a different story.

At that point,

pricing power may slowly start shifting.

From a seller's market,

toward a buyer's market.

And the U.S. market is already showing some of these signs.

In August,

national inventory rose 5.9% year over year,

while the pace of sales slowed.

That means buyers genuinely have more choices and more negotiating room than in recent years. (Realtor)

But New York is interesting.

In August, signed contracts in New York City fell 5.4% year over year,

yet 21.8% of closed listings

still sold above their most recent asking price.

In Queens, 24.2% of closings sold above the most recent asking price. (StreetEasy)

What does that tell us?

Today's housing market can no longer be summed up with a single word like "up" or "down."

A good home,

priced right,

in a good location,

in good condition,

can still draw competition.

But homes that are:

priced too high,

in average condition,

needing major repairs,

or simply not worth it in buyers' eyes,

may sit on the market much longer.

So when looking at real estate from here,

I think we should stop asking only:

"Have prices dropped?"

I'd suggest watching four numbers instead.

First:

Sales volume.

How many homes are actually selling?

Second:

Inventory.

How many homes are out there competing for buyers?

Third:

Days on market.

How long does it take, on average, to sell a home?

Fourth:

Price cuts.

Are sellers cutting prices more and more often?

Because these four together

tell you far more about

the real temperature of the housing market

than any single price index alone.

And that's also why

I've never liked the saying:

"High rates mean prices must fall."

It's not that simple.

A more accurate way to put it is:

High rates first reduce buyers' purchasing power and willingness to transact.

Then,

if that state lasts long enough,

it may slowly transmit to prices

through inventory, cash flow, and seller behavior.

So

what's really worth watching

isn't whether prices dipped 1% on some particular day,

but:

After volume falls,

can this market hold its prices?

Which brings us back to a core question from earlier:

How long will high rates last?

If it's just a few months,

many people can wait.

If it lasts a year,

the market will slowly adjust.

But if it becomes a longer-term funding environment,

that's an entirely different story.

Because by then,

real estate won't just be facing:

"Are mortgages expensive today?"

But:

Are buyers, sellers, developers, and investors

all starting to adapt to a new world of interest rates?

That's what I most want to dig into next.

Next time, we'll break it down further:

Why do so many American homeowners want to sell, yet refuse to sell?

There's something critical behind it:

the 3% old mortgage.

大家好，我是Tony。

前面三篇，

我们一直在聊：

为什么高利率没有让房价马上大跌？

为什么成交量反而先受到影响？

今天我们把镜头换一个方向。

我想聊聊卖家。

你可能会觉得很奇怪：

房价这么高，

不是应该有很多人赶紧卖房套现吗？

为什么很多房主反而不愿意卖？

这里面有一个非常关键的原因：

3%的老房贷。

什么意思？

假设一个家庭几年前买了一套房，

当时拿到的是3%左右的30年固定贷款。

现在如果他卖掉这套房，

未来还想在同一个城市买一套差不多的房子，

新贷款可能要面对接近7%的利率。

这就产生了一个非常大的落差。

你原来的贷款，

可能是3%。

新的贷款，

可能接近7%。

房子卖掉了，

低利率也一起消失了。

所以对于很多房主来说，

卖房不只是：

“我的房子值多少钱？”

还意味着：

“我以后要用多少钱的利率重新买回来？”

这就是所谓的：

Mortgage Rate Lock-in Effect——房贷利率锁定效应。

纽约联储的研究发现，

疫情期间大量美国房主锁定了非常低的长期房贷利率，

这在后来形成了明显的卖房抑制效应。

截至2024年底，

大约三分之一的美国房主，

房贷利率甚至低于3%。

而现在30年固定房贷已经接近7%。

所以你想象一下：

一个人现在有一笔3%的贷款。

让他卖掉房子，

重新贷款，

利率可能一下子多出几个百分点。

对于几十万、

甚至上百万美元的贷款来说，

这不是一个小数字。

它可能直接改变一个家庭的现金流。

所以很多人最后做出的选择就是：

不卖。

原来的房子继续住。

孩子继续在原来的学校。

工作也继续在那里。

甚至房子已经不完全符合自己的需求了，

也先忍着。

为什么？

因为换房的成本太高。

这就产生了一个房地产市场非常有意思的现象：

房主越不愿意卖，

市场上的房源就越少。

房源少，

买家选择就少。

买家选择少，

好房子的竞争反而可能依然存在。

所以你会发现：

高利率一方面压低了买家的购买力，

另一方面，

又通过低利率旧贷款，

限制了很多卖家的出售意愿。

两股力量，

刚好在市场里面对冲。

这也是为什么，

高利率环境下，

房地产有时候会出现：

成交量很低，

但是价格却非常“抗跌”。

当然，

这里千万不要理解成：

“有3%房贷，所以房价不会跌。”

没有这么简单。

因为房主不卖，

只是减少了供应。

如果就业恶化，

收入下降，

失业增加，

或者某些房主因为离婚、搬家、投资失败等原因必须卖房，

供应还是可能增加。

所以我们真正要观察的是：

这些“锁定在低利率里的房主”，什么时候开始愿意出来卖？

这可能比单纯观察房贷利率本身，

更加重要。

还有一个特别值得关注的地方。

这种锁定效应，

不仅影响房价。

它还影响：

房地产的流动性。

什么意思？

正常情况下，

一个家庭可能五年、七年、十年换一次房子。

房子卖掉，

买家接手，

新的贷款产生，

经纪人完成交易，

装修公司接到订单，

搬家公司有生意，

家具家电也会产生消费。

整个房地产市场其实是在不断流动的。

但是当大量房主都觉得：

“我现在3%的贷款太香了，

我为什么要换？”

整个链条就会慢下来。

所以高利率真正奇妙的地方就在这里：

它不只是影响买房的人。

它还改变了：

卖房的人，

开发商，

银行，

经纪人，

装修公司，

甚至整个房地产市场的交易频率。

而且这里还有一个我觉得特别有意思的问题：

如果这些低利率贷款一直存在，

未来几年房地产市场会不会越来越分化？

因为拥有3%贷款的人，

和现在第一次买房、必须承担接近7%贷款的人，

面对的是完全不同的资金成本。

一个人在同一个市场里，

可能住着一套低利率房贷的房子。

另一个人，

却要用接近7%的利率去买同样价格的房子。

这其实已经不仅仅是房价问题了。

而是：

资金成本不同的人，

进入的是两个不同的房地产市场。

所以我现在越来越觉得，

研究美国房地产，

不能只看：

房价是多少。

还要看：

谁手里的贷款利率是多少。

因为同样是一套100万美元的房子，

背后的贷款成本不同，

它对房主来说，

可能完全是两个世界。

所以回到今天的问题：

为什么很多美国房主想卖，

却又不愿意卖？

答案并不是他们不喜欢现在的价格。

而是：

卖掉以后，

他们可能失去一笔非常便宜的长期融资。

而这笔融资，

可能比房子本身的升值，

对这个家庭的现金流更加重要。

这也是为什么，

未来如果我们想判断房地产市场的供应会不会真正释放，

我觉得有一个数字非常值得继续观察：

房主到底什么时候开始愿意放弃手里的低利率贷款？

因为一旦越来越多的人愿意从3%的旧贷款，

走向接近7%的新贷款，

市场上的房源供应，

可能会出现完全不同的变化。

而这，

可能才是下一阶段房地产市场非常值得关注的一件事情。

我是Tony。

下一篇我们继续往下走：

为什么房子库存增加了，

房价却不一定马上跌？

因为房地产市场里面，

还有一个非常关键的东西：

库存的结构。

Hi everyone, I'm Tony.

In the last three articles, we've been talking about: why didn't high rates crash home prices right away? And why did transaction volume feel the impact first?

Today let's turn the camera in another direction. I want to talk about sellers.

You might find it strange: with prices this high, shouldn't lots of people be rushing to sell and cash out? Why are so many homeowners unwilling to sell?

There's a very key reason behind it: the 3% old mortgage.

What does that mean? Imagine a family bought a home a few years ago with a 30-year fixed loan at around 3%. If they sell now and later want to buy a comparable home in the same city, the new loan could face rates close to 7%.

That creates a huge gap. Your old loan might be 3%. The new loan could be close to 7%. Once the house is sold, the low rate disappears with it.

So for many homeowners, selling isn't just about "how much is my house worth?" It also means: "At what interest rate would I have to buy back in?"

This is the so-called Mortgage Rate Lock-in Effect.

Research from the New York Fed found that during the pandemic, huge numbers of American homeowners locked in very low long-term mortgage rates — which later created a clear dampening effect on selling. As of the end of 2024, about one-third of American homeowners had mortgage rates even below 3%. And now the 30-year fixed mortgage is close to 7%.

So imagine: someone holds a 3% loan today. Ask them to sell the house and borrow again, and the rate could jump by several percentage points. On a loan of hundreds of thousands — even over a million dollars — that's not a small number. It can directly change a family's cash flow.

So what many people end up choosing is: don't sell. Keep living in the old house. The kids stay in the same school. Work stays where it is. Even if the house no longer fully fits their needs, they put up with it for now.

Why? Because the cost of moving is too high.

And that creates a very interesting phenomenon in the real estate market: the less willing homeowners are to sell, the fewer listings hit the market.

Fewer listings means fewer choices for buyers. Fewer choices means competition for good homes may still be alive and well.

So you see: high rates squeeze buyers' purchasing power on one hand, and on the other hand, through old low-rate loans, they restrain many sellers' willingness to sell. Two forces, offsetting each other right inside the market.

That's why, in a high-rate environment, real estate can sometimes show this pattern: very low transaction volume, yet prices that are remarkably resistant to falling.

Of course, don't take this to mean "with a 3% mortgage, prices can't fall." It's not that simple. Because homeowners not selling only reduces supply. If employment worsens, incomes drop, unemployment rises, or some owners must sell because of divorce, relocation, or failed investments, supply can still increase.

So what we really need to watch is: when will these homeowners locked into low rates start being willing to come out and sell? That may matter more than simply watching the mortgage rate itself.

There's another place especially worth watching. This lock-in effect doesn't just affect prices. It also affects real estate liquidity.

What does that mean? Normally, a family might move every five, seven, or ten years. A house gets sold, a buyer takes over, a new loan is created, the agent closes the deal, the remodeling company gets an order, the moving company gets business, and furniture and appliances generate spending. The whole real estate market is actually in constant motion.

But when huge numbers of homeowners all feel "my 3% loan is too sweet, why would I move?" — the entire chain slows down.

So the truly fascinating thing about high rates is this: they don't just affect buyers. They also change sellers, developers, banks, agents, remodeling companies — even the entire market's transaction frequency.

And there's another question I find especially interesting: if these low-rate loans stick around, will the real estate market become more and more divided in the coming years? Because people holding 3% loans and first-time buyers who must take on close to 7% are facing completely different costs of capital. In the same market, one person may be living in a house with a low-rate mortgage, while another has to buy a similarly priced house at close to 7%. This is no longer just a home-price question. It's this: people with different costs of capital are entering two different real estate markets.

So I increasingly feel that studying U.S. real estate can't just be about "what are prices?" You also have to look at "what mortgage rate is in whose hands?" Because for the same one-million-dollar house, with different loan costs behind it, it can be two completely different worlds for the homeowner.

So back to today's question: why do so many American homeowners want to sell, yet refuse to? The answer isn't that they dislike current prices. It's this: after selling, they might lose a very cheap long-term financing deal. And that financing may matter more to the family's cash flow than the home's appreciation itself.

Which is why, if we want to judge whether housing supply will truly be released in the future, I think one number is very worth continuing to watch: when will homeowners actually become willing to give up their low-rate loans? Because once more and more people are willing to move from a 3% old loan to a close-to-7% new loan, the supply of listings on the market could look completely different.

And that may be something very worth watching in the next phase of the real estate market.

I'm Tony. Next time we keep going: why is it that even when inventory rises, home prices don't necessarily fall right away? Because there's another very key thing in the real estate market: the structure of inventory.

大家好，我是Tony。

前面三篇，

我们一直在拆一个问题：

高利率到底是怎么影响房地产的？

今天我们换一个角度。

如果买家因为利率太高，

不愿意买房，

那卖家呢？

按道理说，

买家少了，

卖家应该降价，

然后市场重新找到平衡。

可是现实没有这么简单。

因为现在有一个非常有意思的现象：

很多卖家不是不想卖，

而是不太愿意卖。

为什么？

答案可能就在他们手里的那笔贷款。

你想象一下。

一个家庭几年前买了一套房，

当时30年固定房贷可能只有3%左右。

现在呢？

30年固定房贷已经接近7%。

那么这个家庭如果今天把房子卖掉，

以后再买一套差不多的房子，

意味着什么？

意味着：

原来3%的贷款没了。

新的房贷，

可能要按照接近7%的利率重新计算。

这中间的差距，

不是一点点。

假设还有50万美元贷款。

3%的利率，

和接近7%的利率，

每个月的本息支出，

可能就差一千多美元。

一年下来，

就是一万多美元。

所以很多房主会开始算一笔账：

“我现在这套房子虽然已经不完全符合我的需求，

但是我的房贷利率这么低，

我为什么要换？”

于是就出现了一个非常有意思的结果。

房子想换，

但是贷款不想换。

这就是房地产市场里面经常说的：

Mortgage Lock-in Effect——房贷锁定效应。

它最大的影响，

其实不是让某一个家庭不换房。

而是：

大量家庭同时不换房。

如果一个市场里，

越来越多的人都不愿意卖，

那么市场上的房源自然就会减少。

而房源减少以后，

即使买家数量下降，

价格也不一定马上大跌。

所以你就会看到一个很奇怪的房地产市场：

买家说：

“太贵了，我买不起。”

卖家说：

“这个价格我也不想卖。”

最后怎么办？

大家一起等。

买家等利率下降。

卖家等价格上涨。

开发商等融资成本下降。

投资人等回报率改善。

整个市场的交易速度，

就这样慢慢降下来。

所以我一直觉得，

看房地产不能只看：

房价。

还要看：

有多少人愿意把房子拿出来卖。

因为房地产的价格，

其实是买卖双方共同决定的。

买家少，

当然会产生压力。

但是如果卖家也少，

供应同样会被压住。

这就是为什么：

高利率可以同时压制需求和供应。

这个逻辑非常重要。

因为很多人看到利率接近7%，

第一反应就是：

“房价应该跌。”

但房地产不是这么简单。

高利率确实让很多买家退出市场，

但与此同时，

它又让一些拥有低利率贷款的房主，

更加不愿意出售。

所以最后可能出现：

成交量下降得很明显，

但是价格下降得没有想象中那么快。

当然，

这里有一个非常重要的前提。

这不代表房价不会跌。

如果经济明显恶化，

失业增加，

收入下降，

或者大量房主因为特殊原因必须卖房，

那么这个锁定效应也不能永远保护市场。

所以真正值得观察的，

不是：

“3%的房贷是不是存在？”

而是：

有多少房主愿意为了换房，

放弃手里的低利率贷款？

这才是关键。

因为如果未来利率真的明显下降，

情况可能又会发生变化。

比如一个房主现在拿着3%的贷款，

他可能不愿意换。

但如果未来新的房贷利率明显下降，

从接近7%重新回到一个让他可以接受的水平，

那么这个人可能突然就愿意卖了。

于是：

低利率贷款释放出来，

房源增加，

交易恢复，

整个房地产市场的流动性也可能重新起来。

所以你会发现，

利率下降影响的可能不只是买家。

它还可能把一批原来不愿意卖的房主，

重新带回市场。

这就是为什么，

我们以后观察美联储的时候，

不能只问：

“什么时候降息？”

还应该问：

“降到什么程度，才足以让房主重新愿意换房？”

这两个问题，

其实完全不一样。

因为房地产真正需要的，

不是一个新闻标题上的“降息”。

而是：

利率下降到足够改变买家和卖家的行为。

所以回到今天的问题：

为什么很多美国房主想卖，

却又不愿意卖？

因为他们面对的，

不是简单的房价问题。

而是：

一边是自己的房子，

另一边是手里那笔非常便宜的长期贷款。

房子可以换。

但是3%的贷款，

换不回来。

所以很多人最后选择：

继续住。

而当越来越多人做出同样的选择，

整个房地产市场的供应，

就会发生变化。

这也是为什么，

高利率真正影响房地产的地方，

有时候不是把价格直接打下来。

而是：

先让整个市场变得不那么容易交易。

而下一篇，

我们就继续研究一个非常有意思的问题：

如果市场上的房子真的开始增加，

为什么库存增加，也不一定意味着房价马上下跌？

因为房地产市场里面，

还有一个经常被忽略的东西：

库存的质量和结构。

我是Tony，

我们下一篇继续聊。

Hi everyone, I'm Tony.

In the last three articles, we've been taking apart one question: how exactly do high rates affect real estate?

Today let's look at it from a different angle. If buyers won't buy because rates are too high, what about sellers?

Logically, with fewer buyers, sellers should cut prices, and the market should find a new balance. But reality isn't that simple. Because there's a very interesting phenomenon right now: many sellers don't lack the desire to sell — they're just not very willing to.

Why? The answer may be sitting in the loan they hold.

Imagine this. A family bought a home a few years ago, when the 30-year fixed mortgage might have been only around 3%. And now? The 30-year fixed is close to 7%.

So if this family sells the house today and later buys a comparable one, what does that mean? It means: the old 3% loan is gone. The new mortgage may have to be calculated at close to 7%.

The gap in between is not small. Say there's still a $500,000 loan. At 3% versus close to 7%, the monthly principal-and-interest payment could differ by more than a thousand dollars. Over a year, that's more than ten thousand dollars.

So many homeowners start doing the math: "This house doesn't fully fit my needs anymore, but my mortgage rate is this low — why would I move?"

And that produces a very interesting result. The house is ready to be swapped, but the loan is not.

This is what the real estate market often calls the Mortgage Lock-in Effect.

Its biggest impact isn't that one family decides not to move. It's that large numbers of families all decide not to move at the same time.

If more and more people in a market are unwilling to sell, listings on the market naturally shrink. And once listings shrink, even with fewer buyers, prices don't necessarily crash right away.

So you see a strange real estate market: buyers say "too expensive, I can't afford it." Sellers say "at this price, I don't want to sell either." And in the end? Everyone waits together.

Buyers wait for rates to fall. Sellers wait for prices to rise. Developers wait for financing costs to come down. Investors wait for better returns. The whole market's transaction speed slows down like this.

So I've always felt that looking at real estate isn't just about home prices. It's also about how many people are willing to put their homes up for sale. Because real estate prices are actually decided by buyers and sellers together. Fewer buyers certainly creates pressure. But if there are also fewer sellers, supply gets squeezed too.

That's why high rates can suppress demand and supply at the same time. This logic is very important. Because when many people see rates near 7%, their first reaction is "prices should fall." But real estate isn't that simple. High rates do push many buyers out of the market, but at the same time, they make some homeowners holding low-rate loans even less willing to sell.

So what may emerge in the end: transaction volume falls clearly, but prices fall less quickly than imagined.

Of course, there's a very important precondition here. This doesn't mean prices can't fall. If the economy clearly worsens, unemployment rises, incomes fall, or large numbers of owners must sell for special reasons, then this lock-in effect can't protect the market forever.

So what's truly worth watching is not "does the 3% mortgage exist?" but this: how many homeowners are willing to give up their low-rate loan in order to move? That's the key.

Because if rates really do fall meaningfully in the future, things could change again. Say a homeowner holding a 3% loan is unwilling to move now. But if future mortgage rates fall clearly, from near 7% back to a level they can accept, that person might suddenly be willing to sell.

Then: locked-in loans get released, listings increase, transactions recover, and the whole market's liquidity may come back to life.

So you see, a rate cut may affect more than just buyers. It could also bring a group of homeowners who were unwilling to sell back into the market.

That's why, when we watch the Fed going forward, we shouldn't only ask "when will they cut rates?" We should also ask: "How far must rates fall before homeowners are willing to move again?" Those two questions are completely different. Because what real estate really needs isn't a "rate cut" in a news headline. It's rates falling enough to actually change buyer and seller behavior.

So back to today's question: why do so many American homeowners want to sell, yet refuse to? Because what they face isn't a simple price question. It's this: on one side, their house; on the other, that very cheap long-term loan in their hands.

The house can be swapped. But the 3% loan can't be swapped back.

So many people end up choosing: keep living there. And when more and more people make the same choice, the entire market's supply changes.

That's also why the place where high rates truly affect real estate is sometimes not in pushing prices straight down, but in first making the whole market less easy to transact in.

And next time, we'll keep studying a very interesting question: if listings on the market really start to increase, why doesn't rising inventory necessarily mean prices fall right away? Because there's something often overlooked in the real estate market: the quality and structure of inventory.

I'm Tony. We'll keep talking next time.

大家好，我是Tony。

前面几篇，

我们一直在聊一个问题：

高利率到底是怎么影响房地产的？

今天我们再往下走一步。

很多人看到房地产新闻，

最容易产生一个判断：

库存增加了，房价是不是就要跌了？

听起来很合理。

但是房地产市场，

往往没有这么简单。

因为：

库存增加，不等于所有的房子都变得便宜。

我们先看一下现在的情况。

2026年8月，

美国房地产市场的活跃房源同比增加了3.6%。

全国库存月数已经到了4.9个月，

是2015年底以来比较高的水平。(Realtor)

听起来是不是应该：

房子多了，

价格就开始跌？

但实际情况是，

8月份美国成屋成交中位价仍然比去年同期高1.6%。(Realtor)

所以问题来了：

库存增加了，

为什么价格没有跟着大幅下降？

这里面有一个非常关键的概念：

库存不是一个简单的数字。

你不能只问：

“市场上有多少房子？”

你还要问：

这些房子是什么房子？

比如说，

一个市场里面有100套房子。

其中20套，

位置很好，

维护得很好，

价格也合理。

另外80套，

可能价格偏高，

需要装修，

位置一般，

甚至已经在市场上放了很久。

这时候，

你虽然看到：

“库存增加了。”

但真正能够吸引买家的，

可能还是那20套。

所以房地产市场里面经常会出现一种情况：

总库存增加，

但是优质库存并没有明显增加。

这两个事情，

完全不是一回事。

这也是为什么，

我们看房地产不能只看：

Inventory。

还要看：

Inventory的结构。

第二个非常重要的问题是：

库存为什么增加？

如果库存增加，

是因为大量新的卖家进入市场，

那对买家来说，

意味着选择真的增加了。

但如果库存增加，

主要是因为：

房子卖得越来越慢，

成交量下降，

旧房源不断积累，

那它反映出来的其实是：

需求变弱。

这时候，

库存增加的意义就完全不同。

所以：

库存增加本身不是答案。

我们需要知道：

它是因为供应增加，

还是因为销售速度下降。

而现在美国市场，

两个因素其实都有。

8月份，

全国成屋销售下降到398万套的年化速度，

比7月份下降2%，

同比下降1.2%。

与此同时，

未售库存增加到162万套。(Realtor)

也就是说：

卖得慢了，

市场上的房子却更多了。

这就是一个值得关注的信号。

但是，

我们还是不能直接跳到：

“房价马上要大跌。”

因为全国房地产市场差异非常大。

你看纽约，

情况就完全不一样。

2026年8月，

纽约市待售房源大约15,324套，

同比下降5%。

Queens的待售房源反而同比增加3.3%。

所以同一个纽约市里面，

不同区域的市场状态都已经不一样了。(StreetEasy)

而且更加有意思的是：

8月份纽约市仍然有21.8%的成交房源，

最终成交价高于最近一次挂牌价。

Queens也有一部分房子出现这种情况。(StreetEasy)

这告诉我们一个非常重要的事情：

市场冷，不代表所有房子都冷。

市场热，

也不代表所有房子都热。

真正决定一套房子卖得怎么样的，

还包括：

位置，

房屋状况，

价格，

户型，

地段需求，

以及同一时间市场上有多少类似房源。

所以以后你看到：

“库存增加10%。”

不要马上得出：

“房价要跌了。”

你应该继续问三个问题。

第一：

库存增加在哪里？

全国？

纽约？

Queens？

还是某一个具体社区？

第二：

增加的是什么库存？

好房子？

普通房子？

还是那些已经在市场上放了很久、不断降价的房子？

第三：

买家到底有没有跟上？

如果库存增加，

同时成交量也在下降，

那就要更加注意。

因为这意味着：

供应在增加，

需求却没有同步增加。

这种情况下，

卖家的议价压力才可能真正开始出现。

而如果库存增加，

成交量也增加，

那反而可能只是：

市场恢复正常交易。

所以同样是：

“库存增加。”

背后的含义，

完全可能不一样。

这也是为什么，

我越来越觉得，

研究房地产不能只看一个数字。

房价，

库存，

成交量，

新挂牌，

Days on Market，

Price Cut，

这些数字放在一起，

才是一张比较完整的地图。

而且这里还有一个特别值得我们继续观察的问题：

如果库存继续增加，

但房价只是慢慢调整，

那么最后真正先让步的，

到底是买家，

还是卖家？

这其实会决定下一阶段房地产市场的议价权。

如果买家越来越多，

卖家越来越少，

价格可能撑得住。

但如果买家越来越少，

库存越来越多，

而且越来越多房主开始降价，

市场的平衡就会慢慢发生变化。

所以我现在看房地产，

不会简单地说：

库存增加 = 房价要跌。

我更愿意看：

库存怎么增加，为什么增加，增加的是什么。

因为房地产真正有意思的地方，

从来不是一个数字。

而是：

数字背后的行为。

买家在做什么？

卖家在做什么？

开发商在做什么？

银行又在做什么？

这些行为叠加在一起，

才慢慢形成我们看到的房价。

所以第五篇，

我们先记住一句话：

库存增加，不一定意味着房价马上下跌。

但如果出现：

库存持续增加 + 成交量持续下降 + 在市时间变长 + 降价越来越多，

那这个组合，

就值得我们认真观察了。

下一篇，

我们继续往下拆一个更加有意思的问题：

为什么同样是美国房地产，

纽约、迈阿密、德州、加州，

面对同样的利率，

结果却完全不一样？

因为房地产最终，

还是一个非常非常本地化的市场。

我是Tony，

我们下一篇继续聊。

Hi everyone, I'm Tony.

In the last few articles, we've been talking about one question: how exactly do high rates affect real estate?

Today let's go one step further. When many people see real estate news, they easily form one judgment: inventory is up, so prices must be about to fall? It sounds reasonable. But the real estate market is often not that simple. Because: more inventory doesn't mean every house gets cheaper.

Let's look at the current situation first. In August 2026, active listings in the U.S. housing market rose 3.6% year over year. Months of supply nationally reached 4.9 months, a relatively high level since the end of 2015. (Realtor)

Sounds like it should be: more houses, so prices start falling? But in reality, the median price of existing-home sales in August was still 1.6% higher than the same period last year. (Realtor)

So the question is: inventory went up, why didn't prices fall sharply along with it?

There's a very key concept here: inventory is not a simple number. You can't just ask "how many houses are on the market?" You also have to ask: what kind of houses are these?

For example, say a market has 100 houses. Of them, 20 are in good locations, well maintained, reasonably priced. The other 80 may be overpriced, need renovation, in average locations, or have been sitting on the market for a long time.

At this point, although you see "inventory increased," what can actually attract buyers may still be just those 20.

So the real estate market often shows this situation: total inventory rises, but quality inventory doesn't rise noticeably.

Those two things are completely different.

That's also why, when we look at real estate, we can't just look at Inventory. We also have to look at the structure of inventory.

The second very important question is: why did inventory increase?

If inventory rises because a large number of new sellers enter the market, then for buyers, it means choices truly increased. But if inventory rises mainly because houses are selling slower and slower, transaction volume falls, and old listings keep accumulating, then what it actually reflects is: weakening demand.

At that point, the meaning of rising inventory is completely different.

So: rising inventory itself is not the answer. We need to know: is it because supply increased, or because sales pace slowed?

And in the current U.S. market, both factors are actually present. In August, national existing-home sales fell to an annualized pace of 3.98 million units, down 2% from July and down 1.2% year over year. At the same time, unsold inventory rose to 1.62 million units. (Realtor)

In other words: selling slowed down, yet there are more houses on the market. That's a signal worth watching.

But we still can't jump straight to "prices are about to crash." Because the national real estate market varies enormously. Look at New York — the situation is completely different.

In August 2026, New York City had about 15,324 homes for sale, down 5% year over year. Queens listings, on the other hand, rose 3.3% year over year. So within the same New York City, different areas already have different market conditions. (StreetEasy)

And even more interesting: in August, 21.8% of sold homes in New York City still closed above their most recent asking price. Queens had some homes in this situation too. (StreetEasy)

This tells us something very important: a cold market doesn't mean every house is cold. A hot market doesn't mean every house is hot either.

What truly decides how a house sells also includes: location, condition, price, layout, neighborhood demand, and how many similar listings are on the market at the same time.

So next time you see "inventory up 10%," don't immediately conclude "prices are going to fall." You should keep asking three questions.

First: where did inventory increase? Nationally? New York? Queens? Or one specific neighborhood?

Second: what kind of inventory increased? Good houses? Average houses? Or those that have been sitting on the market for a long time, cutting prices again and again?

Third: did buyers actually keep up? If inventory rises while transaction volume also falls, then pay closer attention. Because that means: supply is increasing, but demand isn't increasing along with it.

In that situation, sellers' pricing pressure may truly begin to appear. But if inventory rises and transaction volume rises too, that may instead just be: the market returning to normal trading.

So the same "inventory is up" can mean completely different things behind it.

That's also why I increasingly feel that studying real estate means never looking at just one number. Home prices, inventory, transaction volume, new listings, days on market, price cuts — these numbers together form a relatively complete map.

And there's one more question especially worth continuing to watch: if inventory keeps rising but prices only adjust slowly, then who actually concedes first — buyers or sellers? This will actually decide the next stage's bargaining power in the real estate market.

If buyers keep increasing and sellers keep decreasing, prices may hold. But if buyers keep decreasing, inventory keeps increasing, and more and more owners start cutting prices, the market's balance will slowly change.

So when I look at real estate now, I won't simply say: inventory up = prices about to fall. I'd rather look at: how inventory increased, why it increased, and what increased.

Because the truly interesting part of real estate was never one number. It's the behavior behind the numbers. What are buyers doing? What are sellers doing? What are developers doing? What are banks doing? These behaviors layered together slowly form the prices we see.

So for this fifth article, let's remember one line: rising inventory doesn't necessarily mean prices fall right away. But if you see: inventory keeps rising + transaction volume keeps falling + days on market lengthen + more price cuts, that combination is worth watching seriously.

Next time, we'll keep taking apart an even more interesting question: why is it that the same U.S. real estate, in New York, Miami, Texas, and California, facing the same rates, produces completely different results? Because real estate is ultimately a very, very local market.

I'm Tony. We'll keep talking next time.

大家好，我是Tony。

前面五篇，

我们一直在拆一个问题：

高利率到底是怎么影响房地产的？

但是到了这里，

我觉得我们必须把一个非常重要的问题讲清楚：

为什么同样是美国，

同样面对接近7%的房贷，

纽约的房地产，

和德州、佛州，

结果却完全不一样？

其实原因很简单：

房地产从来都不是一个全国统一的市场。

利率是全国性的。

但是房地产，

是非常本地化的。

你在纽约买一套房，

和你在德州买一套房，

背后的土地供应、人口、就业、税费、保险、建筑速度，

全部不一样。

所以同样的利率，

落到不同地方，

结果当然不一样。

我们先看纽约。

2026年8月，

纽约都会区活跃房源同比增加3.2%，

看起来库存是在增加。

但是新挂牌量反而同比下降1.7%。

而且纽约都会区的中位挂牌价大约74.9万美元，

同比下降1.4%。

看起来价格确实在调整，

但是调整并不算剧烈。

更有意思的是，

纽约的房子平均在市场上的时间大约56天，

比全国60天还要快。(Realtor)

这说明什么？

高利率确实在压制需求，

但是纽约的供应依然没有完全释放出来。

这其实和我们前面讲的：

“低利率旧房贷锁定效应”

是连在一起的。

很多房主手里有非常便宜的长期贷款，

不一定愿意为了换房，

重新承担高利率。

所以纽约市场即使受到高利率压力，

供应也不一定一下子大量增加。

但是你再看看美国其他一些市场，

故事就不一样了。

比如Austin。

2026年8月，

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos都会区的中位挂牌价，

同比下降9.8%。

每平方英尺挂牌价格，

同比下降8.1%。

库存同比基本持平。

这和纽约的情况，

已经是非常明显的区别。(Realtor)

为什么？

这里面就涉及房地产最重要的一个东西：

供应。

一个地方如果过去几年盖了大量的新房，

当利率上升以后，

需求突然变弱，

市场上的选择就可能迅速增加。

买家就会说：

“你不降价，

我可以去看隔壁那一栋。”

卖家的议价能力自然就会发生变化。

而纽约这种土地和住房供应更加受限制的市场，

情况就可能不一样。

尤其是在一些需求长期存在、

供应又比较有限的区域，

高利率可以压低成交量，

但未必会马上把价格打下来。

这就是为什么，

我们不能简单地说：

“美联储加息，

美国房价就一起跌。”

没有这么简单。

再看佛州。

2026年8月，

Florida全州活跃房源大约28.6万套，

Realtor.com数据显示，

过去三年库存增加了43.96%。

全州中位挂牌价大约41.9万美元，

同比下降约3.5%。(Realtor)

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach这个都会区，

库存同比下降15%，

但是中位挂牌价仍然同比下降2%。

这就再次告诉我们：

库存和价格之间，

不是简单的一加一关系。(Realtor)

因为房地产还有很多其他变量。

比如：

人口流入还是流出？

当地就业怎么样？

新房建设多不多？

土地供应怎么样？

房产税怎么样？

保险成本怎么样？

租金怎么样？

投资者占比怎么样？

这些东西都会改变房地产市场对利率的敏感程度。

所以我现在越来越觉得，

真正聪明的房地产分析，

不是问：

“美国房价怎么样？”

而是问：

“哪一个市场？”

甚至进一步问：

“哪一个城市？哪一个社区？哪一种房子？”

因为同一个城市里面，

不同房型都可能是两个市场。

新房和老房，

独栋和公寓，

投资房和自住房，

高端市场和刚需市场，

面对高利率的反应都可能不同。

这也是为什么，

作为一个纽约的房地产经纪人，

我自己特别喜欢观察：

宏观利率，

最后到底是怎么落到一个具体社区的。

比如同样是房贷接近7%，

一个Queens家庭，

可能最关心的是：

月供、

房产税、

学校、

通勤、

房屋维护成本。

而一个佛州买家，

可能还要更加关注：

保险、

飓风风险、

社区费用，

以及当地的新房供应。

同样一张美联储的利率表，

落到不同家庭身上，

其实已经是完全不同的账本。

所以这也是为什么，

我们前面一直在说：

高利率不是直接决定房价。

它更像一个压力测试。

它会把一个市场本身的问题，

慢慢放大出来。

供应本来就紧的地方，

可能表现成：

成交量下降，

但价格相对有韧性。

供应比较充足的地方，

可能表现成：

库存增加，

卖家开始降价，

买家议价能力提高。

而如果一个地方：

人口增长放缓，

新房供应又很多，

同时就业和收入也承受压力，

那高利率产生的影响，

可能就会更加明显。

所以未来我们看房地产，

我觉得可以记住一个非常简单的公式：

利率 × 供应 × 需求 × 当地经济。

这四个东西放在一起，

才是一个房地产市场真正的温度。

而不是单独看：

“美联储今天加息25个基点。”

因为美联储可以决定全国的资金价格，

但它不能决定：

纽约今天有多少房子挂牌。

也不能决定：

Austin今年盖多少新房。

更不能决定：

佛州的保险成本是多少。

这些东西，

最后才决定了：

同样的利率，

为什么不同地方会出现完全不同的房地产周期。

所以回到今天的问题：

为什么同样面对高利率，

纽约、德州、佛州却是不同的故事？

因为：

利率只是一个变量。

房地产真正的答案，

永远藏在：

供应、

需求、

人口、

就业、

融资、

税费，

以及当地人的真实居住需求里面。

所以以后大家看到新闻说：

“美国房价涨了。”

或者：

“美国房价跌了。”

我建议先别急着下结论。

先问一句：

哪里的房子？

因为美国房地产，

从来不是一个市场。

而是几千个不同的小市场，

拼在一起。

我是Tony。

下一篇，

我们继续往下走。

我们已经知道：

高利率会影响买家，

会影响卖家，

会影响成交量，

也会影响不同城市。

那么接下来一个问题就来了：

房地产开发商呢？

他们可能才是高利率环境下，

最早需要重新计算账本的人。

Hi everyone, I'm Tony.

In the last five articles, we've been taking apart one question: how exactly do high rates affect real estate?

But here, I feel we must make one very important issue clear: why is it that in the same America, facing the same nearly-7% mortgage, New York real estate and Texas and Florida produce completely different results?

The reason is actually simple: real estate was never one unified national market.

Rates are national. But real estate is very local.

Buying a home in New York versus buying one in Texas — the land supply, population, jobs, taxes, insurance, and construction pace behind them are all different.

So the same rate, landing in different places, naturally produces different results.

Let's look at New York first. In August 2026, active listings in the New York metro rose 3.2% year over year — inventory seems to be increasing. But new listings actually fell 1.7% year over year. And the median list price in the New York metro was about $749,000, down 1.4% year over year. Prices do seem to be adjusting, but the adjustment isn't dramatic.

More interestingly, homes in New York spend about 56 days on market on average, faster than the national 60 days. (Realtor)

What does this tell us? High rates are indeed suppressing demand, but New York's supply still hasn't fully been released.

This is actually connected to what we talked about before: the low-rate old-mortgage lock-in effect. Many homeowners hold very cheap long-term loans and aren't necessarily willing to take on high rates again just to move.

So even under high-rate pressure, New York's supply won't necessarily surge all at once.

But look at some other U.S. markets, and the story is different. Take Austin. In August 2026, the median list price in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro fell 9.8% year over year. List price per square foot fell 8.1% year over year. Inventory was basically flat year over year. That's already a very obvious difference from New York. (Realtor)

Why? This gets to the most important thing in real estate: supply.

If a place built a large number of new homes over the past few years, when rates rise and demand suddenly weakens, choices on the market can increase quickly. Buyers will say: "If you don't cut the price, I can go look at the next building over." Sellers' bargaining power naturally changes.

But in markets like New York where land and housing supply are more constrained, things can be different. Especially in areas where demand has long existed and supply is limited, high rates can push down transaction volume but won't necessarily knock prices down right away.

That's why we can't simply say: "The Fed raises rates, so U.S. home prices fall together." It's not that simple.

Look at Florida again. In August 2026, Florida had about 286,000 active listings statewide; Realtor.com data shows inventory grew 43.96% over the past three years. The statewide median list price was about $419,000, down about 3.5% year over year. (Realtor)

In the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metro, inventory fell 15% year over year, but the median list price still fell 2% year over year. This tells us again: between inventory and prices, it's not a simple one-plus-one relationship. (Realtor)

Because real estate has many other variables. For example: is population flowing in or out? How are local jobs? Is there a lot of new-home construction? What's land supply like? Property taxes? Insurance costs? Rents? What's the investor share?

All of these change how sensitive a real estate market is to rates.

So I increasingly feel that truly smart real estate analysis doesn't ask "How are U.S. home prices?" but asks "Which market?" And even further: "Which city? Which neighborhood? Which type of home?"

Because within the same city, different home types can be two different markets. New homes and old homes, single-family and apartments, investment properties and owner-occupied homes, luxury markets and starter markets — they can all react differently to high rates.

That's also why, as a New York real estate agent, I especially enjoy observing: how macro rates finally land in one specific neighborhood.

For example, with mortgages near 7% all the same, a Queens family may care most about: monthly payment, property taxes, schools, commute, maintenance costs. While a Florida buyer may have to pay more attention to: insurance, hurricane risk, HOA fees, and local new-home supply.

The same Fed rate table, landing on different families, is already a completely different ledger.

So that's also why we've been saying: high rates don't directly decide home prices. They're more like a stress test. They slowly magnify a market's own problems.

Places where supply was already tight may show: transaction volume falls, but prices stay relatively resilient. Places with ample supply may show: inventory rises, sellers start cutting prices, buyers gain bargaining power. And if a place has slowing population growth, lots of new-home supply, and jobs and incomes under pressure at the same time, then high rates' impact may be even more visible.

So when we look at real estate going forward, I think we can remember a very simple formula: rates × supply × demand × local economy. These four together are a real estate market's true temperature. Not looking alone at "the Fed hiked 25 basis points today."

Because the Fed can decide the national price of money, but it can't decide: how many homes list in New York today. Nor can it decide: how many new homes Austin builds this year. Even less can it decide: what Florida's insurance costs are.

These things are what finally decide: why the same rates produce completely different real estate cycles in different places.

So back to today's question: why do New York, Texas, and Florida tell different stories facing the same high rates? Because: rates are just one variable. Real estate's true answers are always hidden in: supply, demand, population, jobs, financing, taxes, and local people's real housing needs.

So next time you see news saying "U.S. home prices rose" or "U.S. home prices fell," I'd suggest not rushing to conclusions. First ask: where? Because U.S. real estate was never one market. It's thousands of different small markets pieced together.

I'm Tony. Next time, we keep going down this path. We already know: high rates affect buyers, affect sellers, affect transaction volume, and affect different cities. So the next question is: what about real estate developers? They may be the ones who need to recalculate their ledgers earliest in a high-rate environment.